Like consumer advocates, free-market supporters trumpet the importance of competition among ISPs, and fear a monopoly on broadband. But they think the access requirements and the other rules in the Telecom Act stifle rather than secure competition, innovation and investment, and the monopolist they are concerned about is Uncle Sam. "I'm a lot more worried about John Ashcroft than John Malone," quipped Gerald Faulhaber, chief economist of the FCC from 2000 to 2001, referring to the attorney general and to one of the top power brokers in the cable industry.

At the heart of the argument that the free market will save us lies the belief that competition between DSL, cable, satellite, local wireless and other technology "platforms" not yet imagined will be more than enough to guarantee that consumers will get the Internet when, where, and however they want it. Even if one company enjoys a monopoly on one of those platforms, the theory goes, it will not amount to a monopoly on high-speed Internet access overall. Better still, they say, encouraging a horse race between platforms will mean that billions of dollars in private investment will pour into broadband infrastructure and equipment.

"It's clear the FCC is moving toward putting cable off-limits to regulation [under the Telecommunications Act], and I think that's a great idea," said Faulhaber, who now teaches economics at Wharton. "I wish Michael Powell would do more to encourage platform competition. As long as people think this will be regulated, no [competitor] is going to jump in."

Competition between platforms would indeed steal an awful lot of thunder from those making dire predictions that mega-corporations are about to capture control over the next generation of the Internet. If my cable company won't let me click through to the Web or get streaming video, I can get DSL, or a satellite dish, or a wireless connection.

But the likelihood that robust competition will actually develop for a majority of households remains a hotly contested question. As of June 2001, the latest official statistics available from the FCC show 2.7 million U.S. households using DSL, 5.2 million using cable modem, and 200,000 broadband via satellite. Fifty-eight percent of U.S. zip codes (not necessarily households) had more than one broadband option available. Twenty percent of zip codes had no broadband service at all.

Advocates of broadband deregulation tend to be very optimistic about the potential for interplatform competition to improve; its critics are not.

The pessimists say that cable is too far ahead, that DSL doesn't have the bandwidth to compete with cable on key applications like video streaming, and that satellite broadband -- besides its tiny market share -- works well for downloading but not uploading. "In the abstract, no one would deny that 10 different platforms would be good," said Leanza of the Media Access Project. "But it's naive to assume that most people will have more than one platform available."

Optimists point out that DSL is catching up and network upgrades would make it just as fast as cable modem, that satellite is a real option just needing time to develop, and that new options like local wireless, fiber to the home, even networks over power lines, will take off if local, state and federal bureaucracies would stop standing in the way.

In the most extensive independent study of broadband to date, the National Research Council came to a mixed conclusion regarding interplatform competition. The report found that interplatform, or "facilities based," competition, is important and should be encouraged. But it also predicted it would not take hold everywhere and should not be relied on exclusively for consumer protection.

"The report found that facilities-based competition is important, but don't assume you're going to get it," says David Clark, a computer scientist at MIT and a coauthor of the NRC study. Some locations, like big cities, might get three competitors, others two, and some just one, he said. Nevertheless, Clark cautiously endorsed the current FCC policy of deregulation.

"The gamble is to get broadband out there, no matter what it looks like," Clark said. "You might try for a level of competition you don't get. You might gamble and lose. But I would say, get it out there."

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