Against this dearth of Xbox excitement, Nintendo is fielding a new title from Miyamoto himself. Early indications are that Pikmin, his strategy game, exclusive for the GameCube, will create as much new ground as he's already pioneered. Adhering to the Miyamoto aesthetic, it's a fusion of intuitive gameplay and dreamy, childlike imagery. The player controls a grounded space traveler who's struggling to repair his wrecked craft, assisted by the planet's tribes of sentient plants. The level of creative problem-solving required to accomplish this should attract a wider demographic than Miyamoto's previous games, and Pikmin may well be the GameCube's killer app.

Meanwhile, another GameCube-only title boasts the killer app of franchises. Star Wars Rogue Leader: Rogue Squadron II puts you in a picture-perfect re-creation of the aerial and space action scenes from the Lucas films, with a verisimilitude that makes them almost indistinguishable from the actual films. (In the Hoth level, you even get to entangle AT-ATs with your snowspeeder's tow cable.) Unfortunately, the missions are broken up in jarring, discontinuous chunks; you feel as if you're being hustled along a kind of "Star Wars" stations of the cross.

"As is typical with Nintendo, the software offerings will be quite limited for the holidays," says Geoff Keighley, editor in chief of Gameslice. "But still, let's keep the price in mind: $100 less for the GameCube is a lot of money in today's economy." If a recent Nintendo projection is to be believed, of the $55- to $60 million next-generation consoles expected to sell over the next half-decade, GameCube will take over three-quarters of that share, partially driven by its $199 list price -- which is about $100 less than the base rate for either the Xbox or the PS2. And Shacknews' Bergman believes that Nintendo's appallingly successful Gameboy Advance will also drive Gamecube sales: You can link the portable game system to the console, and use it as an extra controller.

Nintendo is also aiming to capture some of the older market dominated by Playstation 2 with games like the gothic horror adventure Eternal Darkness: Sanity's Requiem, set for early next year.

But there's no question which game will dominates this winter, and it's on the PS2.

"Metal Gear Solid 2 is by far the biggest game this holiday season," says Keighley, who recently returned from the Ebisu district of Tokyo, in preparation for his upcoming GameSpot profile on the development of MGS2.

The triumphant return of Solid Snake, the ultralethal stealth commando at the center of Konami's popular Metal Gear Solid, has been anticipated by gamers for several years. "I don't think it's a coincidence that the game is available at retail the same week as Xbox and GameCube go on sale," Keighley says.

The first Metal Gear Solid became a phenomenon largely on its cinematic strength; as directed by Hideo Kojima, it had the dazzling swish pans and quick cutting of an action movie. Those operatic, anime-influenced flourishes are retained in the sequel, and according to Keighley, are so bravura, they belie the PS2's relatively modest graphics power.

"Have one look at the tanker scene in MGS2," says Keighley, "with the rain falling, the puddles splashing and the wind gushing, all at 60 frames per second. That scene by itself is more cinematic and more realistic than anything I've seen on the other consoles ... Microsoft keeps telling us that Xbox is more powerful than the PS2," says Keighley, "but at least at this point MGS2 is just as impressive looking as anything I've seen on the Xbox. It just goes to show that graphic horsepower and processing speed isn't always what matters -- creativity and artistry can go a long way to making a console successful."

More than that, MGS2 comes with a compelling, intelligent story. "It's actually surprisingly well-written ... filled with thought-provoking dialogue and cinematic sequences," Keighley says. "The basic message has to do with realizing that there is more to life than just digital information. What can't be copied -- our memories, thoughts, emotions and feelings -- are still incredibly important things to preserve."

"I don't think there's any doubt in my mind that the Playstation 2 will be the market leader at the end of this year," says Bergman of Shacknews. "They've had over a year to build up an audience and the inevitable supply shortage on the other two systems will only help Sony."

This sense is validated by a recent survey of consumers in the market this Christmas for a console; overwhelmingly (as in 62 percent) they preferred the Playstation 2, and primarily on the strength of its brand and wide variety of games.

"Even the top-tier titles for the other platforms don't get me as excited as [Sony Playstation 2's] Grand Theft Auto 3 or Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3," says Bergman. "It all comes down to who has the best games, and this year, it's Sony."

Indeed, after MGS2, Sony's real killer app may be a covert one that never quite shows up on the mainstream radar. Grand Theft Auto III, from Rockstar Games/Take 2 Interactive -- in which you play a low-level wiseguy who carjacks his way to the top of Liberty City's underworld -- has been the rage of gamers since it hit shelves in October.

"This is a game that is unabashedly violent, offensive to just about everybody with a conscience and, unlike other equally offensive titles," says Bergman, a fan, "is actually a great deal of fun."

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