It is most likely this history that explains the IEM's swing toward shares rewarding a big Bush win. But I'd be remiss not to discuss some other theories that Salon readers have proposed to explain Bush's IEM success. One idea is that the IEM's traders are biased toward Republicans. Trading in a stock market, this theory goes, is the province of wealthy people, and the wealthy are probably favoring Bush in this election. Therefore it's no wonder that the wealthy people who are on the IEM are choosing Bush.

But that theory rings hollow. First, you don't need to be especially wealthy to be on the IEM. I invested in the market with only $30, and the IEM sets a maximum for each account at $500. You're not going to find people at the poverty line investing in presidential futures, but it doesn't have to be the domain of millionaires, either. The IEM is also not unknown to liberals; it's been featured here in Salon, in the journalist James Surowiecki's book and his New Yorker column, in the New York Times, on PBS, and on many lefty blogs. If Democrats really believe that John Kerry's chances are better than the IEM says, why don't they sign up to the market and start bidding up Kerry shares?

Salon readers have also floated the idea that Bush is doing well on the IEM because it's possible that some event in the late stages of the race could decisively tip the election toward the president, while nothing could really decisively tip it toward Kerry. This is the "October surprise" theory -- if there's a terrorist attack or if Osama bin Laden is caught, or even if we see unexpectedly good economic news during the next two months, Bush will win. I see some truth to this idea; I think it explains why, for instance, shares for a big Kerry win are selling so cheap.

Finally, there is the possibility that we're living in a Bush bubble, a moment when all rationality has gone for a walk. Looking at the inexplicable price rise of shares for "big Bush win" contracts over the past week, I must say that I've thought on more than one occasion that the traders buying that stock can't be thinking rationally. Before we've seen a single debate, how can you confidently venture that there's a 50 percent chance that Bush will win handily in November? Could it be that the traders buying these shares aren't doing so because they believe that Bush has such good odds to win big but, instead, because they think there are other people who believe this of Bush who'll be willing to buy the shares for even higher prices? Bubbles aren't common in a market like the IEM, where each contract has a definite value -- $1 on Election Day if the contract wins, nothing if it loses -- but they can still develop when each trader buys a share in the belief that he'll be able to sell it to another sucker for a higher price the next day. Is this what's happening on the IEM? Has Bush become the stock of suckers?

Even though I find compelling the historical record showing how common big wins are in presidential races, I'm partial to the bubble theory -- I think the IEM is overvaluing Bush shares, maybe by a little and possibly by a lot. I've arranged my portfolio accordingly: I have 12 shares of the contract saying that Bush will win more than 52 percent of the two-party popular vote. I have zero shares of the contract saying that Kerry will win more than 52 percent. I have 57 shares of the contract saying that Bush will win, but with less than 52 percent. And I have 41 shares of the contract saying that Kerry will win with less than 52 percent.

I'm betting, you see, on a very close race; landslides will ruin me. I invested $30 in the market. If Kerry wins big, I'll lose all that money. If Bush wins big, I'll lose all but $12. But if Kerry wins small, I'll get $41 -- $11 more than I invested.

And my dream scenario (financially) would be for Bush to win with less than 52 percent of the vote. In that case, I'd win $57 in the market, $27 more than I invested, which wouldn't be a bad way to kick off four more years.

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