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Monday, Nov 23, 2009
Whether the curves serve as anything more than a conversation-starter is still up for debate. Chris Landauer, a computer scientist at the Aerospace Corporation and a fellow guest speaker with Lehman at a February conference on software evolution at the University of Hertfordshire, was impressed by the Lehman pitch.
"He has real data from real projects, and they show real phenomena," Landauer says. "I've seen other sets of numbers, but these guys have something that might actually work."
At the same time, however, Landauer wonders if the explanation for similar growth trajectories across different systems isn't "sociological." In other words, do programmers, by nature, prefer to add new code rather than substitute or repair existing code? Landauer also worries about whether the use of any statistic in an environment as creative as software development leads to automatic red herrings. "I mean, how long does it take a person to come up with a good idea?" Landauer asks. "The answer is we just don't know."
Michael Godfrey, a University of Waterloo scientist, is equally hesitant but still finds the Lehman approach useful. In 2000, Godfrey and a fellow Waterloo researcher, Qiang Tu, released a study showing that several open-source software programs, including the Linux kernel and fetchmail, were growing at geometric rates, breaking the inverse squared barrier constraining most traditionally built programs. Although the discovery validated arguments within the software development community that large system development is best handled in an open-source manner, Godfrey says he is currently looking for ways to refine the quantitative approach to make it more meaningful.
"It's as if you're trying to talk about the architecture of a building by talking about the number of screws and two-by-fours used to build it," he says. "We don't have any idea of what measurement means in terms of software."
Godfrey cites the work of another Waterloo colleague, Rick Holt, as promising. Holt has come up with a browser tool for studying the degree of variation and relationship between separate offshoots of the original body of source code. Dubbed Beagle, the tool is named after the ship upon which Charles Darwin served as a naturalist from 1831 to 1836.
Like Landauer, Godfrey expresses concern that a full theory of software evolution might be too "fuzzy" for most engineering-minded programmers. Still, he credits Lehman for opening the software field to newer, more intriguing lines of inquiry. "It's the gestalt 'Aha' of his work that I find more interesting than the numbers," Godfrey says.
For Lehman, the lack of a scientific foundation to the software-engineering field is all the more reason to keep digging. Fellow researchers can quibble over the value of judging software in terms of total lines of code, but until they come up with better metrics or better theories to explain the data, software engineering will always be one down in the funding and credibility department. A former department head, Lehman recalls the budgetary battles and still chafes over the slights incurred. Now, as he sits in a cramped office, trying to recruit new corporate benefactors and a new research staff, he must deal once again with those who label software development a modern day form of alchemy -- i.e. all experiment but no predictable result.
"In software engineering there is no theory," says Lehman, echoing Holland. "It's all arm flapping and intuition. I believe that a theory of software evolution could eventually translate into a theory of software engineering. Either that or it will come very close. It will lay the foundation for a wider theory of software evolution."
When that day comes, Lehman says, software engineers will finally be able to muscle aside their civil, mechanical and electrical engineering counterparts and take a place at the grown-ups' table. As for getting bigger offices, well, he sees that as a function of showing the large-scale corporations that fund university research how to better control software feedback cycles so their programs stay healthier longer. Until then, the search for a theory has rendered Lehman less of a Darwin and more of an Ahab -- a man in search of both fulfillment and a little revenge.
