Xbox, Xbox, |ber alles

Am I perhaps being premature? After all, there's still one year, at least, until the Xbox debuts. And the PC gaming industry isn't the only challenge. Since Sony's PlayStation 2 is scheduled for release in September, Sony is likely to lord it over the playing field for the next few quarters. Then there are Nintendo and Sega to contend with.

But according to a report in Wired News, initial advance sales for the Japanese version of PlayStation 2 are waning, fueled by mounting complaints from those who already own the consoles.

The developer side of the equation seems just as disgruntled. My anonymous source puts it this way: "I've heard nothing but groans from programmers across the industry about the PS2," he says. "It is not an easy system to develop for, but it is very powerful and Sony is going to own the market for the next couple of years, so there's not much of a choice if you want to be at the top of the heap."

Meanwhile, Nintendo unveiled its next-generation console in Tokyo last week, once code-named the Dolphin, now redubbed the GameCube, which is scheduled for an October 2001 release. That would put it direct competition with the Xbox.

But Microsoft's Bachus doesn't see much overlap in their respective markets. "Nintendo has traditionally done really well with a particular type of consumer," says Bachus. "Six-to-12-year-olds, let's say. Younger gamers ... We're going after an 18-year-old guy away at college for the first time. That's who the Xbox customer is going to be."

And while the prospects of Nintendo 64 and the upcoming Cube remain undecided, some insiders think that Sega's star is definitely waning:

"Sega has Dreamcast right now," says Gameslice's Keighley. "Great software lineup for 2000, but questionable whether it can be sustained into 2001. Over the past few months a number of third-party developers have canceled Dreamcast games, and big players like Electronic Arts have refused to develop for the platform ... Its life span is likely limited."

Comments from Sony, Sega and Nintendo were unattainable by this story's deadline. But at the very least we know what Gates thinks. In a recent interview with Red Herring, Microsoft's founder testified for the Xbox, describing its prospects against the competition with the kind of cheerfully offhand inevitability that makes his yen for hegemony so lovable:

"Sony is a great company, and is actually a partner of ours," said Gates." But in the case of video games, Xbox and PlayStation 2 are actually going to compete. In terms of richness of its graphics, and having a hard disc storage ... You won't even think of PlayStation 2 and Xbox as being in the same generation."

All this suggests that developers will concentrate on designing for the Xbox, with the PC platform becoming progressively less attractive. And despite Bachus' protests to the contrary -- "We're releasing more PC titles next year than what we've ever released before ... We're going to continue to invest very heavily in the PC game market" -- I wonder if the computer game has finally (thankfully) become a moribund medium.

"I think people with PCs will still want to play games on them," says Keighley. "But we are talking about the hardcore here -- those who upgrade their machines every six months so they can have the latest graphics and sound cards."

"I think the Xbox could take a chunk out of the Wintel PC game market," says Neurath, formerly of Looking Glass. "Consider that today the hardcore PC game market has stagnated. In terms of total dollar sales, it's been essentially flat over the last two years. It's also become an intensely competitive space, with too many titles chasing too few players."

Neurath's old employer was itself the most poignant victim of this stagnation. The studio's inability to attract enough PC gamers to its complex, cerebral games directly contributed to its downfall. Unsurprisingly, just before its bankruptcy, Looking Glass was developing Part 3 of its beloved Thief series as an Xbox title.

Could a new Microsoft hegemony lead to a more nurturing atmosphere for Looking Glass-style creativity? Many developers and gamers hope so, especially those who have battled with PC technical idiosyncrasies and the oppressive power of Sony. Predicting who will win the gaming wars is ultimately a loser's bet, but one can always dream, can't one? Judging by the optimism the gaming industry is beaming in Microsoft's direction, it suddenly seems possible that the giant that has crushed so many to grow so large may finally be using its stature to do what it claims (with little conviction) to have been doing all along: Innovate and make the world a better place.

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