The big showdown

Will the GOP take control of all three branches of government? Or will the Democrats embarrass the Bush machine? A guide to Tuesday's key electoral contests.

By Anthony York

Nov 5, 2002 | Which of the midterm election races could keep us glued to our cable news Tuesday night?

Maybe none, if you're one of the more than 60 percent of all voters likely to sit the election out. But that doesn't mean the stakes -- or the chance for great late-night drama -- aren't high. Of the very few 435 House and 34 Senate races expected to be competitive, those that are have a lot riding on them -- conceivably, control of both the Senate and House. President Bush has been out campaigning hard for struggling candidates in the campaign's final days, as has the Democrats' leading light, Bill Clinton (and, yes, Al Gore has done some select stumping, as well). While Bush hopes to capitalize on his 60-plus approval rating, Democrats have tried a traditional get-out-the-vote campaign led by labor unions and are relying heavily on black voters in many key races.

If Republicans regain complete control of the Congress -- as they briefly did in 2000, before Sen. Jim Jeffords jumped ship to become an Independent -- look for Democrats to play up their expected gains in gubernatorial races across the country. Many of the states that fell under Republican rule during the midterm election of 1994 are wobbly -- thanks to the shaky economy. While some major states like New York and Texas will probably remain in Republican hands, others are still too close to predict.

So here's guide to the closest -- and most crucial -- Senate, House and governors' races:

The Senate

Arkansas: Sen. Tim Hutchinson, perhaps the GOP's most vulnerable Senate incumbent, is trying to fend off a tough challenge from the attorney general, Democrat Mark Pryor. The son of a former state political giant and U.S. senator, Pryor was thrown off message in the final hours of his campaign over allegations that he failed to pay Social Security taxes for his housekeeper. Hutchinson's campaign has also been tainted by scandal: A high-profile divorce has not served the "family values" candidate well.

Colorado: In a rematch of their 1996 contest, Sen. Wayne Allard, R-Colo., and Democrat Tom Strickland are trading accusations of corporate sleaze: Strickland claims Allard takes marching orders from the accounting industry and has tried to stall a corporate reform bill in Congress. Allard raises questions over the timing of Strickland's sale of stock in Global Crossing and Qwest and derides him as a "millionaire lawyer-lobbyist."

Louisiana: Nobody doubts that Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat, will get the most votes in this state's Senate election. But under state law, a candidate needs 50 percent of the vote to win, or else the two top vote-getters head for a December runoff. The GOP has fielded three candidates to help keep Landrieu under 50 percent, and polling indicates that the strategy may prove successful -- which could keep control of the Senate undetermined for another month.

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