Site Presented By
Monday, Nov 23, 2009
Iraq and the "war on terror" may prevent the Democrats from seizing control of Congress, but long-term trends are all working against the GOP.
Oct 31, 2002 | It's now clear that the GOP peaked too soon. After a period from late August through early October when the Iraq debate was dominating headlines and preventing Democrats from gaining traction on domestic issues, momentum has now switched back to the Democrats. They appear to be in a good position to hold and possibly increase their margin in the Senate, and perhaps even take back the House, though Iraq and al-Qaida will probably protect the Republicans from losing Congress entirely. But the Democrats also stand to make substantial gains in the nation's governorships -- a little-noticed development that provides strong evidence of an unfolding political realignment.
Recent surveys illustrate how the terrain has shifted in the Democrats' favor. The Gallup poll, for example, finds a sharp increase in negative feelings about the economy and a widening lead for the Democrats in dealing with economic conditions. And almost all polls have the economy as the No. 1 voting issue in this election.
It doesn't stop there. The Democrats also have healthy leads on dealing with prescription drugs, healthcare, Social Security, education and the environment. Moreover, voters who say one of these issues is a key voting issue all tend to favor the Democrats for Congress. Voters who select the situation with Iraq as one of their top voting issues also favor the Democrats for Congress by a wide margin -- defying the conventional belief that voters with strong feelings about Iraq tend to be hawks.
Of course, the outcome of the elections will be partly shaped by more general concerns about national security, which should help Republicans limit their losses. A projected low turnout, which favors Republicans, also could help the GOP. But the Democrats are still likely to make some important gains.
What ought to trouble Republican strategists is that these gains reflect a continuing sea change in the American electorate, one that points toward the emergence of a new Democratic majority. That majority is based in America's most dynamic metropolitan areas and rooted in growing pro-Democratic constituencies such as professionals, women and minorities. The Democrats' basic stance of support for necessary government spending and environmental protection, along with respect for diversity and women's rights, is congenial to all these voters.
The fact is that the core Republican constituencies -- white men, rural voters, small businessmen -- are being slowly but surely overtaken by a Democratic coalition of women, minorities, service workers and a new class of college-educated professionals, one more concerned with social justice and less likely to reflexively vote by tax bracket than the old doctor-lawyer-executive elite. In the post-industrial age, demography favors Democrats: The numbers of "Reagan Democrats" -- blue-collar workers who helped boost the GOP in key mid-Atlantic industrial states -- are shrinking, while the new professional class and the service class, which both skew Democratic, are growing. Iraq and the war on terrorism can impede the Dems' eventual triumph, but they can't stop it.
This emerging majority can be seen most clearly in some of the governors' races. In these, hopes and fears about national security and terrorism count much less than concerns about the economy and education. That should particularly favor Democrats, and there are good signs from the polls that it does.
Heading into the election, Republicans enjoy a 27 to 21 edge among governorships, with two Independents. Based on current polling data, Democrats are likely to gain six statehouses from the Republicans and it could easily be more. That means that after the election, Democrats should actually control the majority of governorships. Their biggest pickups should be in Midwestern and mid-Atlantic battleground states that have been governed recently by Republicans, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania, Democrat and former Philadelphia mayor Ed Rendell, building on his dominance of Philadelphia and its fast-growing suburbs, is cruising to victory over Republican Mike Fisher. The socially moderate Rendell has also successfully reached out to the rest of the state with a message of economic revitalization and public school improvement. The combination has made him essentially unbeatable.
In Michigan, Democrat Jennifer Granholm is dominating her race against Republican Dick Posthumus. Granholm is just the kind of candidate who can appeal to women and professionals in upscale Detroit suburbs like Oakland County, even as she consolidates the Michigan Democrats' traditional base among union households and blacks.
The Illinois race matches Republican Jim Ryan, a protégé of Gov. George Ryan, who decided not to seek a second term amid reports of corruption, against Democrat Rod Blagojevich. The association with ethical problems has obviously been one reason candidate Ryan has been consistently trailing Blagojevich. But another reason is that Illinois is such a strong Democratic state now that it is really just snapping back to its natural political configuration. Chicago and suburban Cook County cast about 40 percent of Illinois' vote, and are so heavily Democratic that a Republican has to carry about two-thirds of the vote in the rest of the state just to be competitive. That's a tall order and Jim Ryan isn't the candidate to fill it.
In Wisconsin, the race between Democrat Jim Doyle and Republican Gov. Scott McCallum is tighter, but Doyle has been consistently ahead in the polls. He has been able to take advantage of Democrats' strength in Milwaukee and fast-growing Dane County, home of the University of Wisconsin. A Democratic candidate who runs strong in these areas is hard to beat, provided he can reach out to the rest of the state, as Doyle has done with a message of fiscal responsibility and support for public education.
But signs of this new majority aren't limited to the Democratic "blue" states of the 2000 election. Democrat Janet Napolitano is also favored to defeat Republican Matt Salmon in Barry Goldwater's Arizona, which has slowly been turning Democratic under the impact of Hispanic, women and professional voters. In another intriguing indicator of change, Grant Woods, the co-chair of Salmon's election campaign, is reported to be considering a party switch to the Democrats after the election. The reason? Woods has become increasingly upset by the Republicans' lack of outreach to Hispanics and the conservative wing's domination of the GOP's agenda.
Or take Florida, where Democrat Bill McBride is locked in a tight contest with the president's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush. McBride may not win, but if he does it will be because of the non-Cuban Hispanics and professionals who have flocked into South and much of Central Florida and helped deliver the state to Clinton in 1996 and (almost) to Al Gore in 2000.
