A very big little race

As a result, Thune's campaign has sought to change the subject. When asked what the campaign's central issues were, Thune spokeswoman Christine Iverson said, "national security and tax relief." Thune's campaign is not shy about using the current focus on Iraq to shine a spotlight on Johnson's history, namely his vote against the Gulf War in 1991. "It's something that is driving the debate right now," Iverson says. "I think it makes Johnson's actions back in 1991 more relevant."

That focus has led to one of the most controversial ads of the 2002 campaign season. In a Thune spot, Saddam Hussein made his first campaign appearance. That ad, which criticized Johnson's record on defense and ran in the Western, more conservative part of the state, features an image of Saddam and al-Qaida fighters.

Johnson called the ad "intensely over-the-top negative" and tried to deflect the criticism by pointing out that his son, Brooks, is likely to see combat in the Gulf should U.S. troops be called on to invade Iraq.

Geographically and politically, South Dakota is practically two separate states, separated by the Missouri River. To the west are the cattle-ranching lands of the Black Hills, whose politics resemble the arch-conservative rural politics of many other Western states. This is the South Dakota known to history buffs and tourists alike, from the grand, gaudy monument at Mount Rushmore to the desolate landscapes of the Black Hills, to Wounded Knee, the site of the Oglala Sioux massacre in 1890.

East of the river are the state's vast corn, wheat and soybean farms and the state's largest city, Sioux Falls, home to one-sixth of the entire state's population. The mixture of urban sensibility and Midwestern populism makes East River, as it is known, the Democratic bastion of this increasingly conservative state.

While South Dakotans regularly give Daschle more than 60 percent of the vote, it gave George Bush a similar stamp of approval in 2000, putting him ahead of Al Gore by 22 points.

Which would seem to make running against Bush a dangerous proposition. But Johnson's campaign has tried to paint the president as a kind of outside agitator, first persuading Thune to drop his bid for the governor's office (which appeared his for the taking) in order to face off against Johnson. Johnson operatives riff on the meeting between the Thune and Bush families at the White House, when "they ate chocolate truffles and convinced John to run for the Senate," in Pfeiffer's words. The "truffles," a flourish repeated by a number of South Dakota Democrats, is no doubt meant to imply Thune was somehow seduced by Beltway bonbons instead of what's best for South Dakota. "John Thune is running for his party, not for his state," Pfeiffer says.

"Thune likes to say he'll work with Tom [Daschle] and President Bush, but he doesn't say who he'll vote for majority leader," says Pfeiffer. "He'll vote for Trent Lott from Mississippi. If Lott is majority leader, it's going to be about Mississippi rice farmers, not grain producers or livestock producers in South Dakota."

But talking down Bush has become increasingly difficult as this race has worn on. "This summer, we certainly were running on their issues," says Thune spokeswoman Iverson. "It was corporate accountability, prescription drugs, Social Security. But since that time, it has definitely switched to an issue terrain which is much more favorable to John Thune. The two issues which are the wild-card issues are the war and the economy, and I think it's debatable which issues will be highest on voters' minds when they walk into the ballot box."

But Pfeiffer says, "Any spin that the drought is somehow just a summer issue is wishful thinking on the part of the Thune campaign. Farmers and ranchers in South Dakota are still hurting."

Perhaps, but that's not immediately apparent in the polls. Johnson seems to have rebounded from his summer slump, when he trailed Thune by as much as 9 points in statewide polls after campaigning on the economy and the drought. Most polls now have Johnson with a slight lead, but within the margin of error. While Thune may have lost some ground, there is certainly good news for his campaign as well. Historically, incumbents who poll less than 50 percent of the vote within a month of the election rarely, if ever, win on Election Day. In all the statewide polls, Johnson is well below the magic 50 percent figure.

In the next few weeks, both Bush and Daschle will make appearances to drum up those few extra percentage points that could make all the difference.

"At the end of the day, this race could come down to 5,000 votes," Iverson says. "An enormous amount of time and energy will be spent trying to influence 5,000 people."

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