Poison on the mind

Is panic the right response to the specter of bioterrorism?

By Chris Colin

Oct 3, 2001 | It wasn't long after Sept. 11 that the public discussion turned to the prospect of even worse attacks. The possibility of biological warfare got in our heads, and, for good reason, it's proving hard to dislocate: Even a moderately successful biological attack could kill millions -- and in many cases, rather slowly. Four out of every five Americans believe another attack within the U.S. within a year is either "very likely" or "somewhat likely," according to a TIME/CNN poll, yet how we as individuals, and as a nation, should best proceed remains murky.

We knew things would be different; we even knew there could be more terrorism, but it took a while before we pieced together the grim possibilities. Suddenly, a raft of germ warfare threats lurks in every paper bag, in every cooler, in every tractor trailer that passes. Some talk of leaving -- Isn't this what Jews should have done when they had the chance in Germany? Are we staying beside the volcano even after it rumbles? -- but a good biological weapon will eventually find you. So for now, we stay near the TV, watch for signs.

No hard evidence connects Osama bin Laden to biological weapons, but the Washington Times quoted U.S. intelligence officials on Sept. 26 saying that the Russian mafia has likely been supplying al-Qaida with components for these weapons, and for chemical and nuclear weapons as well. And two years ago, a former Afghan warrior who had trained with bin Laden told the Associated Press that "Osama has dozens of camps. They train on antiaircraft guns, explosives, chemical and biological weapons."

Nervous or not, most of us believe we're safe. Given the mounting evidence of an imminent attack, it's hard to imagine why we feel this way. Consider the following:

Former Soviet bioweapons researcher Ken Alibek, who defected to the U.S. in 1992, told National Public Radio in 1999: "I'm 100 percent sure that some biological weapons and their killing capacity are more effective than some forms of nuclear weapons." Alibek ran the former Soviet Union's Bioweapons Directorate for 20 years.

On Sunday, Attorney General John Ashcroft told CBS's "Face the Nation" that "We think that there is a very serious threat of additional problems now, and frankly, as the United States responds, that threat may escalate."

University of Iowa microbiologist Mary Gilchrist, generally credited with establishing the National Laboratory Network for Bioterrorism Detection, takes issue with those who say dissemination obstacles make germ warfare unlikely. "Someone can carry a small bag of material that can infect hundreds of thousands of people," she told the AP. "You can carry that bag through virtually every airport security system I'm aware of. It won't attract attention from a drug-sniffing dog, either ... I think it could happen at any time."

President Clinton said in 1999 that a biological or chemical attack on the U.S. is "highly likely," and that the threat "keeps [him] awake at night."

The United Nations Special Commission has shown that Saddam Hussein developed massive quantities of chemical and biological weapons and prepared them so they could be delivered with Scud missiles. It stands to reason that Hussein could be interested in helping bin Laden attack America.

Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., chairman of a House subcommittee on national security, has said, "I am absolutely convinced we'll have a chemical, biological or nuclear attack. The question is not if, it's when, where and what will the magnitude be."

There's a lot we don't know, but we do know the following: Our adversaries are serious, they're willing to die and they have the money to finance a significant operation. We know that reports say bin Laden has been training his followers in biological and chemical warfare, that "hunting down" every terrorist is impossible and that men connected to al-Qaida have looked into acquiring crop-dusting planes and licenses for driving hazardous-materials trucks. We know that bin Laden has said he wants to destroy the United States -- quite different from simply sending us a message or effecting a policy change or two.

Next Page: Eighty percent of hospitals had no plan for a biological attack

• View blog reactions