The Saudis just say no to Bush

Of course, before the war Saudi Arabia was hardly a friend of Saddam Hussein, whom Saudis saw as a serious threat to their security. It was George H.W. Bush who protected Saudi Arabia from a possible invasion in 1990-91, after Saddam invaded and occupied neighboring Kuwait. Many analysts believed at the time that Saddam would have kept going and taken the Saudi oil fields were it not for the presence of the U.S. troops hastily dispatched to the kingdom. So while Saudis are still highly critical of the current President Bush, they speak warmly of the United States. "I have not met anyone who has been to the United States and not liked it," one of the dinner guests said.

In other parts of the Arab and Islamic world, those who may likewise appreciate America and Americans share these Saudis' contempt for Bush. A poll conducted in Egypt -- another staunch U.S. ally and the recipient of tens of billions of U.S. dollars in financial aid -- on the eve of the third anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks found Osama bin Laden ahead of President Bush in popularity. A poll in Saudi Arabia showed that if it were to hold free elections with bin Laden as a contender, he would win by a clear margin. (In some Arab and Islamic countries, of course, anti-Bush sentiment is encouraged by the government to distract people from internal problems.)

Most members of the Saudi elite I encountered believe that the war in Iraq was a diversion from an important concentration on al-Qaida and bin Laden. Three years after 19 terrorists, most Saudi nationals, slammed passenger jets into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, shocking America and the world, the war to eradicate terrorism is far from being won, they say. Al-Qaida and its affiliates remain operational -- carrying out attacks across the globe, from Jakarta, Indonesia, to Riyadh -- despite being routed from their Afghan stronghold and the killing or capture of a number of key operatives.

Now Saudi Arabia's long-standing close relationship with the United States, cemented over the years in part by the American education of the Saudi elite, is likely to shift to other countries. Already, the kingdom has started selling more of its oil to China, and it may no longer be among the top five largest suppliers of oil to the United States, according to James Placke, a senior associate at Cambridge Energy Research Associates and a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs. He says that the once "special relationship" between Saudi Arabia and the United States is weakening; it began to decline, Placke says, when the Bush administration prepared for war with Iraq. He notes that Saudi oil exports to the United States dropped from 1.7 million barrels per day in 2002 to 1.1 million bpd in May. The invasion of Iraq, says Placke, "was clearly not in tune with [the interests of] Saudi Arabia or really anyone else in the Arab world." Now, he says, there is "a slow recognition by the Saudi side that the 'special relationship' isn't so special anymore."

What's more, many of the Saudis I spoke to believe that Bush's plan to instill democracy overnight in the Middle East is wildly unrealistic. As Ihsan Ali Bu-Hulaiga, a member of Saudi Arabia's consultative council, the Majlis al-Ahura, said, "Before you can install democracy, you need to have democrats." For the moment those are hard to find in most parts of the Middle East.

In his campaign appearances, President Bush tells Americans that the world is now safer because of his war in Iraq. But much of the rest of the world, including the Middle East, begs to differ. Summing up his countrymen's sentiment, one Saudi said: "Bush has caused more harm to America's image than can be imagined."

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