The situation would be somewhat less desperate if the Europeans could step in and replace the Americans as the principal democracy promoters in the region. But unfortunately, the Europeans find this difficult to do, principally because Bush's embrace of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has thoroughly tainted any project in the Middle East associated with the U.S. administration. The Europeans are very unlikely at this point to step in and fill the breach, even though stalled reform in the Middle East may have very negative consequences for them, first of all.

A worst-case outcome would be a quisling regime clinging to shreds of "sovereign" power after the departure of U.S. troops, first weakened by successive ministerial assassinations and then fragmenting along ethnic or sectarian lines, and eventually collapsing. Following that could be large-scale communal violence, including another murderous onslaught on the Kurds, who are viewed by Iraqi Arabs, both Shiite and Sunni, as collaborators with the American occupation. We might even live to see a dramatic last-minute evacuation by helicopter of a besieged U.S. Embassy.

But let's leave such nightmare scenarios aside. What is the very best outcome that we can hope for in Iraq? With extraordinary luck, Iraq could become, in a few years, something like Bosnia without the high representative of the E.U. It would have a weak central government because, given the fragmentation of the society, no all-Iraqi government can be simultaneously representative and coherent. Periodic elections would serve only to reinforce the independence of the Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite regions, and the government would constantly be in delicate negotiations with local and tribal leaders. Such a pseudo-state would be considered successful if it could protect its cabinet members from assassination, if most foreign fighters were evicted (breaking the lethal marriage of convenience between transnational terrorists and nationalist insurgents) and if neighboring powers were not driven to dispatch military forces into the country. But it would be at best a corrupt, criminalized and disorganized polity, festering, unsafe and characterized by violent weakness.

How would such an outcome affect the reputation of American-sponsored democratization in the region? For a clue we can look to Russia. In the early 1990s, Russians associated the word "reform" with hope for social improvement. Today, the word has been completely discredited by its association with unjustifiable inequalities and the corrupt seizure of public property by well-placed insiders wholly unconcerned with the well-being of ordinary citizens. Something analogous has happened to the word "democracy," which has become associated with Russia's humiliating collapse from superpower to basket case. Will the Iraq debacle contaminate the concept of democracy for Middle Easterners in a similar way?

Democracy will remain an attractive ideal around the world, including the Middle East, so long as life in established democracies remains well ordered, prosperous, safe and free from abuse. Nevertheless, the public humiliations of Iraqis -- committed in the name of "democracy" -- may well leave a lasting taint on the idea. Some of those in the region, contemplating the miserable breakdown of Iraqi society, may well conclude that authoritarianism is more compatible with Arab dignity than an aborted attempt to democratize a society that does not seem especially ready for democracy.

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