What do you think of the ambitious scenario put forth by many intellectual hawks in and around the Bush administration, who predict that by destroying Saddam, the U.S. can reorder the entire Middle East chessboard, making it a haven for Western-style democracy?

It's a utopian fantasy that will have a high price in bloodshed. We already have one democracy over there, Israel -- and it's being shattered by wave after wave of atrocities. War on Iraq may destabilize pro-American regimes there. Who knows how long the Saudi regime can survive the aftereffects of a war?

Of course some of these hawks would say, "Who cares if the Saudi regime falls -- they're corrupt and their society breeds terrorism and they're not trustworthy allies."

Yes, but who's going to take over Arabia -- the strongest alternative is the radical Muslims. What if Egypt goes? The dream of the radical Islamic movement is to topple all of the secular, pro-West governments in the Middle East. Americans may say, "Oh, that can never happen." Well, yes it can -- because of the discipline and rigor of these radical, self-contained belief systems.

How will war with Iraq affect the volatile Israel-Palestine powder keg?

For years in my Salon column, I questioned the automatic way the American government gave billions of dollars a year to Israel without putting pressure on Israeli policy toward the displaced Palestinians. The American major media were cowardly in avoiding the issue. The best time to have created a Palestinian state was 20 years ago. But at this point the situation is probably too inflamed. So the American media's inertness "enabled" the Israeli government, allowing it to stay addicted to our profligate funding. Hence compromises were not made when peaceful relations between Israel and the Palestinians were possible. The suicide bombings of the past two years have disillusioned me with the Palestinian cause. Now I believe we have an ethical obligation to support Israel.

If our incursion into Iraq succeeds, it will clearly strengthen Israel. But if it doesn't, and there's a domino effect of destabilized Mideastern governments, then Israel is in mortal danger. It's so foolish to add more negative energy to that explosive chemical mix in the Mideast. Why give Islamic militants one more major grievance against us? This one will be even more massive than the U.S. leaving military bases on Saudi soil after the Gulf War, which added fuel to bin Laden's crusade to radicalize young Muslims.

What do you think of the antiwar movement that is taking shape in the U.S.?

Well, I had great hopes for it but am discouraged. I turned on C-SPAN with great excitement to watch the big march in Washington last month. But talk about shooting yourself in the foot! Several speakers were good, but most of them tried to drag all sorts of extraneous issues into it -- calling Bush a "moron," accusing America of imperialistic ambitions, "No blood for oil" -- all these clichés. When fringe, paleo-leftist voices take over the platform, it drives away the moderate, mainstream people in this country who have nagging doubts about this war. I just don't believe the polls claiming overwhelming public support for the war. I'm skeptical about the way the pollsters are asking the questions. I don't know anyone who's wholeheartedly for this war.

Whatever support the administration would have going into the war might prove fleeting if there are significant casualties, or the occupation proves costly and messy, don't you think?

Yes, but I don't want it ever to get to that point. You know, we've been bombing Iraq for years, because of the conditions imposed on Saddam after the last Gulf War -- the no-fly zones and so on. In effect, we've been in a state of war for over a decade there. It's not like we've been ignoring Saddam and merrily letting him do whatever he wants.

If we do go to war, I pray it's a brief incursion. But this idea of occupying Iraq! When we need those billions here. Our medical care system is staggering, inner-city education is still a mess, the elderly are in straitened circumstances, and Social Security is in jeopardy, and we're going to spend all this money not only in bombing Iraq but then building it again from the rubble and governing it? This is madness!

Why aren't more public figures speaking out about the war, both pro and con, outside of the usual circles? I mean, on the antiwar side, of course, we have some high-profile Hollywood liberals like Sean Penn and Susan Sarandon ...

Yes, that's one of the problems. Of course actors have a right and even obligation to speak out. But so many of them -- not Sarandon, whom I respect -- come across as witless or knee-jerk. They question Bush's intelligence, or they sneer and snort. They don't sound fully mature; they don't sound like they've fully considered the complexity of the positions that any president and his administration have to take. The infestation of the issue by posturing celebrities and the usual suspects on the fruitcake far left make people think, "I don't want to be one of them."

And then there are the intellectuals like Susan Sontag and Noam Chomsky who've made a career abroad out of anti-Americanism. Sontag's made no secret of her lifelong adulation of all things European. My take is different: My immigrant family escaped poverty in Italy, and so I look at America in a very positive, celebratory way. So I'm reluctant to become part of this easy chorus of anti-Americanism.

I also don't want to do anything to undermine national morale, if we are indeed going to war. It's wrong to be divisive when families have parents or children in danger on the front lines. I don't want to add to their grief.

Do you think war is a certainty at this point?

I'm still hoping against hope that somehow backstage pressure on Saddam from Arab regimes will finally force him to accept exile in some plush pleasure spot. It's so late in the day now. The media should have been focusing six months ago on who the Iraqi people are, on the history and dynamics of the region.

If I could, I would assign everyone to watch "Gone With the Wind" -- which is dismissed these days as an apologia for slavery. But that movie beautifully demonstrates the horrors of war. Everyone is so wildly enthused for war at the start, but Ashley Wilkes says, "At the end of a war, no one remembers what they're fighting for." It shows the destruction of a civilization, the slaughter of a whole generation of young men, and people reduced to squalid, animal-like subsistence conditions. And that's what's missing right now, as we prepare to march off to Baghdad -- a recognition of the horrors and tragic waste of war.

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