Thursday, Jul 24, 2008
Chemistry experiment: Did deadline trades that changed things in the clubhouse make a difference for the Dodgers and Red Sox? Plus: Marketing the Washington Grays.
Oct 4, 2004 | It's too bad the Dodgers gave away their heart and soul at the trading deadline, sending catcher Paul Lo Duca to the Marlins for pitcher Brad Penny and first baseman Hee Seop Choi at the end of July.
If only they'd had the clubhouse presence of Lo Duca down the stretch, they might have been able to win the N.L. West by coming out of a 10-day mid-September swoon to win seven of their last 10 meaningful games, including three of five against the second-place Giants. They might have been able to clinch the division by entering the bottom of the ninth down 3-0 to San Francisco Saturday, scoring three to tie the game, then winning on a for-the-ages grand slam.
Oh, hang on a second ...
Two months ago I wrote that the last two months of the season would be a good test of what I consider the metaphysical concept of team chemistry.
The Dodgers, leading the West by three and a half games over the Padres, were heavily criticized for busting up their chemistry by sending away Lo Duca. Also, the Red Sox got rid of sulking shortstop Nomar Garciaparra by trading him to the Cubs, so I thought following those two teams' fortunes would offer some clues about chemistry. Much less significantly, the Red Sox also picked up Doug Mientkiewicz, the Twins first baseman who had likewise been sulking since his name had come up in trade talks.
So let's look at how all those teams did after the deadline trades. Team chemistry is a concept that's slippery enough that just about any evidence can be used as either support or rebuttal, but let's look anyway.
The Dodgers did play better before they traded Lo Duca than after. They were 60-42, a .588 winning percentage, before the trade and 33-27, .550, after it. But it sure took a long time for the chemistry effect to kick in: Before they went into that 10-game tailspin in mid-September, the Dodgers had played .590 ball (23-16) in 39 games after trading Lo Duca, almost exactly as well as they'd played before.
But we have to count that tailspin. It's not as though that .588 pre-trade winning percentage didn't include some cold stretches. The Dodgers had eight- and six-game losing streaks with Lo Duca onboard.
The drop of 38 points in winning percentage translates to two extra losses over the 60 games after the trade. I'm sure believers will attribute that to the loss of clubhouse chemistry, and, as with all good religious arguments, I can't prove them wrong. It also should be noted that after acquiring Lo Duca, the Marlins improved from .500 (52-52) to .534 (31-27).
But I think the falloff in L.A. had more to do with the fact that on the field, the trade was a bust for the Dodgers. Penny hurt his right biceps and ended up pitching three games, 11 and two-thirds innings, in a Dodgers uniform. Choi, who had been OK with the Marlins in his first full, injury-free year in the majors, was an absolute disaster in Los Angeles. In 31 games he hit .161 with no homers. His OPS in Florida had been .882. In L.A., it was a pitcherlike .531.
Get Salon in your mailbox!