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Monday, Oct 6, 2008
NBA Playoffs: The first round lacks suspense but does have Shaq vs. Yao and a high-octane Kings vs. Mavs series.
Apr 16, 2004 | No other sporting event in North America is as free of suspense as the first round of the NBA playoffs, which begins Saturday. Things pick up considerably in the second round, when the playoffs tend to become a stone gas, but even with most of the outcomes predetermined, the first round is not totally without its charms.
For one thing, we get to see the big teams, the favorites, play meaningful games for the first time. The top three seeds in each conference are almost sure to win four games before they lose four, but they do have to go out and win them. It does matter. For teams like the Timberwolves, the Pacers, the Nets and the Lakers, games haven't meant much since they were assured of making the playoffs. This was when you were doing your Christmas shopping.
Think of the first round as a best-of-seven regular season, hard on the heels of an 82-game exhibition season.
Feel free to skip ahead two paragraphs if you aren't interested in the numbers, but I like to update these stats every year. In the 20 years since the playoffs expanded to 16 teams, 8 seeds have won two of 40 series against 1 seeds. That's a winning percentage of .050. Seven seeds are 4-36 (.100) against 2s, while 6 seeds are 11-29 (.275) against 3s. If you could be transported in time to a randomly chosen game involving the worst team of all time, the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers, you'd have a 10.9 percent chance of seeing them win. That's better than the 7.5 percent chance you would have of seeing an underdog winner if you were randomly dropped into a playoff series involving a 7 or 8 seed.
Six, 7 and 8 seeds combined have a lower winning percentage -- .142 -- than 14 seeds do in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since it expanded to its current size in 1985. Those underdogs have gone 15-65, a .188 winning percentage, against 3 seeds. The difference is first-round losses take two hours in the NCAA Tournament. In the NBA playoffs they take two weeks.
Welcome back, numbers haters! Here's a look at the first-round series, starting, as always in this column, with the West.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (8) Denver Nuggets
The last 8 seed to win a playoff series was the Knicks, who beat the Heat in 1999. Marcus Camby, then a Knick and now a Nugget, says he told his teammates that the last time he was on an 8 seed, his team went to the Finals, which is true. Also true is that the only other 8 seed to win a playoff series was ... the Denver Nuggets! Spooky! In 1994, in best-of-five days, the Nuggets lost the first two to the top-seed Sonics, then won three straight. Those of you who believe in omens and witches' brooms should put a little money on the Nuggets. The rest of us will take the Timberwolves to win their first playoff series ever.
I think the T-Wolves will go to the conference finals, but any of the four teams they might meet there can beat them. As good as they were in winning 58 games and as great as Kevin Garnett is -- he's the runaway MVP -- this is not a championship team.
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