Picking winners

In the baseball playoffs, the National League teams all look vulnerable and the American League teams all look unbeatable. Something's gotta give.

By King Kaufman

Oct 1, 2002 | I can think of a convincing argument why each of the four teams in the National League playoffs can't win the pennant, and I can think of a convincing argument why each of the four teams in the American League playoffs can't lose.

In the National League the Atlanta Braves have no offense and tend to fizzle in the postseason. The Arizona Diamondbacks have no Luis Gonzalez and a fading Curt Schilling. The San Francisco Giants have also underachieved in the postseason, and their starting pitchers aren't made of quite the same stuff as their fine bullpen. The St. Louis Cardinals are hot, as they were at the end of last year, but they lost in the first round last year, when they had better starting pitching.

In the American League, the New York Yankees are tremendous, as usual. The Oakland A's are scorching hot and have three brilliant starters. The Anaheim Angels somehow just keep winning and winning. The Minnesota Twins are just too delicious a story to lose, and besides, they're practically unbeatable at home.

What's a handicapper to do? It may just be that they're going to have to play the games and decide for themselves.

Which is probably for the best, because my predictions are so often wrong that one reader has posited the existence of the Kaufman Curse, which is sort of like the Sports Illustrated Curse, only it affects teams that I've picked to win rather than S.I. cover subjects. And I'm still getting e-mail from crazed, gloating New Englanders about having said the St. Louis Rams would win the last Super Bowl, leading me to wonder if these people are sending the same notes to every sportswriter in America.

I'm man enough not only to admit but also to remind you that I picked the New York Mets, who finished last, to win the N.L. East and the Twins, who won the A.L. Central by 13 and a half games, to finish third. And I only had one division winner (St. Louis) and three playoff teams (St. Louis, San Francisco, Oakland) pegged.

In my defense, though, I said at the time that my choice of the Boston Red Sox over the Yankees was wishful thinking, and at the rate the Baltimore Orioles were losing at the end (32 of their last 36!), they needed only a few more months to fall behind the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, thus making my annual Rays-over-Orioles prediction finally come true. And I think I should get points for saying that the Angels would be good enough to win the A.L. Central, which they were. Thank you.

And now, just as the Orioles persuade themselves to go out there and play every day, I must soldier on in the face of defeat. You have to pay to behold the Orioles' incompetence but it's free to laugh at me. On the other hand, the Orioles serve better food.

Here are my fearless playoff previews and predictions. The team listed first has home-field advantage in the best-of-five "divisional" round, meaning it hosts Games 1, 2 and, if necessary, 5.

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