Nine predictions and nine observations

The Yankees won't do it again, the A's will go far. And stop calling them "ballparks"!

By King Kaufman

Mar 31, 2001 | Making predictions in March about who's going to be playing baseball deep into October is a fool's errand. The season is so long, so many unexpected things can happen. How many of the prognosticators so prevalent this time of year were talking last spring about the A's and White Sox being the class of the American League and the Mets winning the pennant in the Senior Circuit? Who knew the Arizona Diamondbacks would win 100 games two years ago?

Not me, pal. In fact, the only time I came close to prediction perfection was in 1988, when I picked the Dodgers, Mets, A's and Tigers to win the four divisions that existed at the time. Everything was going smoothly until Detroit came completely unhinged in the last two months and lost the A.L. East to Boston by one game. Putting an exclamation point on the collapse: Lou Whitaker, the Tigers' star second baseman, tore up his knee in early September. You probably don't remember that play where Whitaker got hurt. That's because it happened when he did the splits while out dancing with his wife.

How could I have not seen that coming!

But that's the fun of baseball. As right-handed poet Joaquin Andujar noted, you can sum it all up in one word: You never know.

So I foolishly give you my numerologically appropriate nine predictions and nine observations, in the full knowledge that I'm more than likely more wrong than right, as I'm sure you won't hesitate to inform me even before Sunday's first pitch. In defense of my picks, I'd like to say this single word to the members of the New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Oakland A's, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds: No dancing, please.

Prediction 1: New York will win the A.L. East. The Yankees are beatable. Their bullpen took a hit by losing Jeff Nelson, and they're starting to get a little creaky through the lineup. But nobody in this weak division can knock them off. I like Toronto's shaky pitching and terrific lineup better than Boston's shaky pitching (plus Pedro Martinez) and good lineup (minus the injured Nomar Garciaparra) for second place, but neither is strong enough to beat whoever doesn't win the Central for the wild card. Baltimore will boost Tampa Bay out of the cellar.

Observation 1: The conventional wisdom is that the more championships you win, the harder it gets to keep winning, because of either the law of averages or, I don't know, players getting complacent or something. Well, if you've ever been to a convention, you know there ain't much wisdom around, and history hasn't been kind to this way of thinking. So watch out for the Yankees again.

Prior to the 2001 Yanks, six teams have entered a season having won three or more World Series in a row: The 1939, '52 and '53 Yankees won the Series again; the 1975 Oakland A's won their fifth straight A.L. West title but were swept in the playoffs by Boston; the 1954 Yanks won 103 games, but Cleveland won 111, making that year's Yankees the best second-place team in A.L. history; and the 1940 Yanks won 88 games and finished third, two games behind Detroit, one behind Cleveland.

Which leads us to ...

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