Friday, Jul 4, 2008
But just because the Republican National Committee wouldn't commission an ad about the drama of the Clinton years, that doesn't mean voters aren't already thinking about it anyway. Both Clintons are so well defined, after so many years in the spotlight, that attacks based on more current affairs can slip right into the image voters already have of them. So this week's mini-scandal, about whether Clinton did or didn't land under sniper fire at an airport in Bosnia 12 years ago, becomes just another episode where the truth doesn't quite match up with what voters are hearing from the candidate. Polls already show less than 50 percent of the electorate thinks Clinton is "honest and trustworthy." As Comstock put it, "You don't want to be adding more bullet points to the definition of 'Clintonian.'"
GOP polls and focus groups show "Clinton fatigue" is still a problem, especially among independents and moderate Republicans who might be willing to vote Democratic. "Even if they don't dislike her strongly, they're a little ... kind of wary of the Clintons, and they're looking for some sort of change," Bolger said. McCain, who's been in national politics for 25 years himself, might have trouble accusing Clinton of hanging around too long. As with Obama, McCain says he'd try to run a respectful campaign against Clinton. But he doesn't have to go negative to remind voters that they've already been through eight years of a Clinton administration. And there are plenty of people out there who don't necessarily want another one. Having the former president hanging around the edge of the campaign might not help. "You don't have to do anything with it -- it's just there in your face all the time," Comstock said. She then brought up the debacle of "Hillarycare"; the candidate's prime policy initiative while first lady was a failure. "The 'buy one, get one free' didn't work for them [back then], and it's not quite working for them this year, either."
The other line of attack Clinton faces if she does wrest the nomination from Obama is over how she does it. Colorado GOP chairman Dick Wadhams called it "stealing" the nomination, and he'd be happy to tell voters all about the process that put Clinton over the top. "If she wins, it's because these non-elected delegates are going to be countering what happened in primaries and caucuses around the nation," he said. "I think that would be very divisive for them." Other Republicans say polls show independents don't like the thought of superdelegates picking a nominee who trailed in the elected delegate count. "The party that created the whole open primary system and ended the deals behind closed doors and smoke-filled rooms is the one that's kind of relying on that after all," Bolger said.
And just as attacks about misrepresentations in her primary campaign remind voters -- subconsciously, without anyone having to draw an explicit line -- about previous allegations of Clinton lies, the picture of Clinton emerging from a disputed Democratic convention as the nominee thanks to a handful of party insiders would play into old images of a power-hungry couple, too. "It's just the Clintons being the Clintons," Comstock said. "The '90s were good for the Clintons, but they weren't good for Democrats. They survived personally, but everywhere else Republicans prevailed." That overstates the case a little -- Democrats gained ground in the 1998 midterms, after Republicans impeached Clinton. But that won't stop the GOP from accusing Clinton of cheating to get the nomination if she does.
Still, there is always the danger that Republicans will overreach if a Clinton is involved. (Take Citizens United Not Timid, an anti-Clinton group organized by longtime GOP sleazeball Roger Stone, which appears to have no purpose beyond selling T-shirts with its offensive acronym.) Conservatives have never been able to show much restraint in attacking either one of them, no matter how counterproductive it gets. There's little reason to think they've learned their lesson. If Clinton does pull off yet another family comeback, in a political career already dotted with them, her message to Republicans may well be (to quote a figure from a different political dynasty), "Bring it on."
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