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Thursday, Dec 4, 2008
Despite his high favorability ratings in state polls -- 67 percent, according to a July 2005 Quinnipiac survey -- the "dump Lieberman" movement is growing increasingly confident, especially now that Lowell Weicker, the former Connecticut senator and governor, has pledged to challenge the incumbent if no one else steps forward.
"Without a doubt, Joe Lieberman will not be our senator in '07," says Keith Crane, a member of the Democratic town committee in Branford, Conn., and the administrator of the anti-Lieberman Web site DumpJoe.com. "Lowell Weicker can beat him. Joe does not represent Connecticut," he says.
Weicker, a liberal Republican-turned-Independent, is less sanguine about his chances. Lieberman "is very popular in the state," he says. "I realize I'm putting my head on the chopping block. There's just no getting around that he is a popular senator in the state. How that popularity is affected by his continually being the point man for George Bush on the war, I can't evaluate that."
A 74-year-old who walks with a cane, Weicker first announced his willingness to run on Dec. 5 at the Hartford Rotary Club. He evinces little relish for returning to politics. "This is something I would reluctantly do, but only if nobody else will stand up," he says. "I'm not going to give Joe Lieberman a free pass on the war." Weicker's campaign platform would be simple: "Within six months to a year, I want our troops out. Period."
Weicker and Lieberman have a long history. Weicker was a three-term Republican senator from Connecticut until 1988, when Lieberman defeated him by less than 1 percentage point. On foreign policy, Lieberman had challenged Weicker from the right -- the incumbent was considered pro-Castro, and Lieberman garnered the support of Cuban exile leader Jorge Mas Canosa.
With liberal Republicanism becoming oxymoronic, Weicker became an Independent and ran a successful campaign for governor in 1990, leaving after one term amid widespread anger over his introduction of state income taxes. Today he's president of the Trust for America's Health, a nonprofit focused on disease prevention. (He's particularly concerned about avian flu and blames Bush for diverting resources to Iraq that are needed to prepare for a possible epidemic at home.)
Conventional wisdom is that Weicker doesn't stand a chance against Lieberman in 2006, and that he may even open the door to a Republican victory. Because Lieberman is so popular, the GOP isn't planning to field a challenger, but George Gallo, Connecticut's Republican state chairman, told the Hartford Courant, "The dynamics obviously change in a three-way race. There probably would be someone who would want to jump in."
Weicker might have a better shot at beating Lieberman in the Democratic primary. But despite the prodding of local anti-Lieberman activists like Crane, he refuses to join the party.
"Both parties are at fault," Weicker says. "You have the idiotic policy of the Bush administration, which brought us into this war in a disingenuous way, and then you have a bunch of Democrats sitting around agreeing with what happened, or semi-agreeing, or failing to stand up and get counted. So why would I want to be a Democrat? Their silence has been as devastating as Bush's policy. I'll stay right where I am."
That sounds like good news for Lieberman, but at least a few observers see the senator as vulnerable in a general election. "Lieberman's stance on the war is not a politically popular thing here in Connecticut," says Ken Dautrich, a professor of public policy at the University of Connecticut and a close watcher of state politics. "While national polls show that people are marginally against the war, in Connecticut that trend is exaggerated. And that opens up a huge opportunity for someone who wants to challenge Lieberman in a Senate race." Weicker, Dautrich adds, may be just the candidate, as he has shed his negative baggage and remains well known in the state.
If he does run, Weicker could benefit from the same groups that raised money for Howard Dean in 2004. MoveOn, which raised $30 million to fight Republicans in 2004, would be open to backing him. While Pariser emphasizes that no decision has been made yet, his group's members set the organization's priorities, and they're furious at Lieberman. "The amount of concern that we hear from folks in Connecticut about Lieberman on Iraq is mountainous," he says.
Similarly, Democracy for America is likely to support Weicker -- pitting an organization close to the Democratic Party chairman against a Democratic elder statesman. "We would be extremely interested if he were to run," says Dean, who lives in Fairfield, Conn. "He's very principled, a great guy and a free thinker."
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