Friday, Sep 5, 2008
As the president's approval ratings sink ever lower, congressional Republicans facing reelection are getting nervous. But thanks to the way votes are distributed, they may not pay a price for their loyalty.
Aug 11, 2005 | George W. Bush may end up as one of the most successful unpopular presidents in American history.
Since the end of July, Bush's approval rating -- the core indicator of presidential popularity -- has hovered between 41 and 47 percent, depending on the poll. The latest numbers, released Tuesday by Gallup, put Bush's popularity at 45 percent. In almost every survey, a majority or near majority of respondents say they disapprove of the way the president is handling his job.
Contrast these numbers with those from just nine months ago, when Bush became the first president since his father in 1988 to win with a majority of the popular vote -- almost 51 percent -- nabbing the support of over 62 million Americans.
Lagging approval ratings, however, may not sink the president's agenda, even as his allies in Congress confront a historically daunting midterm election. The logic of so-called base politics, the Bush-era strategy that focuses on rallying committed Republicans instead of rushing to claim the center, may keep congressional Republicans close to Bush -- and get them reelected -- in 2006.
According to recent polls, the unease of a few key, swing demographic groups has depressed the president's approval ratings since last November. Bush is "losing the elderly, women and independents compared to his high point at the time of the election," says Robert Blendon, a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government who teaches political polling. The elderly are clearly concerned about Bush's Social Security reforms, Blendon says, and, along with jittery independent voters and women, have become more skeptical about Bush's foreign policy. In Tuesday's Gallup poll, only 44 percent of respondents said they think that invading Iraq in 2003 was not a mistake.
Most of the wavering on Bush is in the middle of the political spectrum. As Gary Jacobson, professor of political science at the University of California at San Diego, explains, Bush is "the most polarizing president we've ever had. He maintains almost rock-solid support among Republicans -- his numbers are in the 87-to-90 range. It's just among Democrats where he's under 20. And then [for] independents, he's in the low 40s." This "tells you ... the electorate is likely to remain highly polarized between the parties" in the next election, Jacobson says.
Historically, low presidential approval ratings and waning support among independent swing voters before a midterm election spell disaster for the president's party. According to James Campbell, professor of political science at the State University of New York at Buffalo, the president's party, on average, wins about 1.3 seats in the House of Representatives for every point of presidential approval. Bush's current approval rating is higher only than that of Harry Truman, who lost 55 House seats in 1946; Ronald Reagan, who lost 27 House seats in 1982; and Bill Clinton, who lost 54 House seats in 1994.
Sixth-year midterm elections -- that is, congressional elections held in a president's second term -- also are infamous for eroding the ranks of presidential allies in Congress. According to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, second-term presidents after World War II have lost an average of six Senate seats in their sixth years.
There have been signs recently that some Republicans in Congress are taking a cue from the past and distancing themselves from Bush. The Bush-backed U.S.-Central America Free Trade Agreement passed by only two votes in the House largely because of local opposition to the treaty in Republican-held congressional districts in the South. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist broke with the president and reversed his earlier position on federal funding for stem cell research. Bush had to settle for a recess appointment of John Bolton because an unusually hostile Senate held up the weapons control expert's nomination as ambassador to the United Nations. And the president's high-profile Social Security plan has stalled in Congress for months.
But, notes Barry Burden, an assistant professor at Harvard who teaches the politics of Congress, "the last two midterm elections have not followed the historical trend." From the Civil War to 1994, only once did a president's party add congressional seats in a midterm election. In 1998, however, Clinton gained seats in the House, and Bush won seats in both chambers in 2002.
Congressional seats are generally safer than they used to be. According to Campbell, "The number of seats that could change, that are really in contention, ... [has] declined substantially in the last quarter century" because incumbents now outspend challengers by 10 or 12 times, limiting the potential for large swings in the balance of power.
He adds, "There are fewer split-result districts than there have been for many decades," meaning a greater number of congressional Republicans win in districts that voted for the Republican presidential candidate now than in the past. Disapproval of the president is generally concentrated in Democratic districts.
Get Salon in your mailbox!