The Bush administration is not the only one applauding Sharon's disengagement plan. French President Jacques Chirac, long critical of Israel and its premier, will give Sharon an unprecedented red-carpet treatment in Paris next week.

Rice decided to extend her Africa trip with a Mideast leg upon hearing the bad news of renewed Palestinian-Israeli violence last week. For several days, it appeared as if both sides had resumed their well-known retaliatory cycle. A Palestinian suicide bomber blew himself near an Israeli shopping mall, then the IDF recaptured the bomber's home town. This was followed by a stream of rockets from Gaza to Israel, to which Sharon responded with the assassinations of 10 Hamas operatives. Then Israel threatened to invade Gaza, deploying forces and tanks in front of the international TV networks. The combination of military threat and hastened diplomacy brought back the ceasefire. In the process, the Palestinian Authority forces of chairman Mahmoud Abbas confronted Hamas for the first time. There were shootings and dozens of Palestinians were wounded. For Israel, Abbas' confrontation with Hamas was too little, too late, but it indicated that Abbas might be able to take care of post-evacuation Gaza.

Upon her arrival, Rice stressed to Israeli officials the importance of implementing the disengagement and coordinating the implementation with the Palestinian Authority. (Palestinians had complained that Israel was not communicating with them about the withdrawal.) She also told them that the Gaza withdrawal should be used to strengthen Abbas's role and pave the way for a future political process, based on the globally endorsed "roadmap" plan for Palestinian statehood.

Longtime acquaintances, Sharon and Abbas have yet to build mutual trust and serious dialogue. Both are focused now on their domestic challenges and forthcoming elections, rather than on mutual quid pro quos. Their meeting last month, prodded by Rice, was a disaster. Clearly, both leaders are trying to reposition themselves for the real contest next year, when the fate of the West Bank will be put on the diplomatic table. Even the settlers know that Gaza is lost, and they will wage their real battle over the far more important Judea and Samaria hills, the heart of the settler movement and home to its most extreme wing.

Sharon is currently riding high in the polls, but his troubles are far from over. His political fate is dependent upon a successful withdrawal. Senior Israeli politicians expect that following a non-violent evacuation and a prolonged ceasefire on the Palestinian front, Sharon will want to capitalize on his success and call an early election around February 2006. Nevertheless, if things go wrong, Netanyahu may dethrone Sharon. In recent months, the finance minister has positioned himself as an opponent of disengagement, relying on the energy of the orange forces to retake the prime minister's seat he lost in 1999. Sharon is trying to divide the settler camp, positioning himself as the savior of the "settlement blocs," where most settlers live.

On Thursday, as Secretary Rice was en route from Sudan to Jerusalem, Sharon visited the large West Bank settlement of Ariel, while Netanyahu toured the settlements in the Jordan Rift Valley to support their "strengthening." Their visits were previews of next year's political contest: who will do better on "keeping the blocs" under future Israeli sovereignty.

Indeed, Sharon stood on the Ariel hills, watched the construction work on Israel's separation barrier around it, and pledged to keep "this bloc and the others" part of Israel, connected with territorial contiguity. He also promised to "expand the bloc" with new construction.

In other times, such statements would provoke American criticism. But these are not ordinary times; the Bush administration wants Sharon to deliver in Gaza, and is ready in return to back the Israeli leader's settlement blocs policy. Bush's letter to Sharon from April 2004 pledged to acknowledge the "realities on the ground" in determining future Israeli-Palestinian borders -- a pro-Israel departure from previous U.S. policy, which had never gone that far. It was carefully written, leaving space for "creative ambiguity" over the future of settlement blocs. In practice, the administration has turned a blind eye to ongoing construction in the settlement blocs, but raised objections to Sharon's plan for building thousands of new housing units between Jerusalem and Ma'ale Adumim, the largest West Bank settlement. But three months ago, standing next to Bush, Sharon pledged to go on with the project.

The Bush administration is sticking to its cautious approach to the Israeli-Palestinian arena. With its Iraq policy in shambles as a guerrilla war rages, and the Arab democratization initiative hardly taking off, Sharon's withdrawal appears to be the only possible success in the region. It is little wonder, then, that American officials assert, "Disengagement is the center of American Mideast policy." This is music to Sharon's ears: it allows him military freedom of action (the world did nothing when Israel resumed its assassination policy against Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives), facilitates further construction of the barrier, including in East Jerusalem, and strengthens his political posture. Israelis know that their nation's relationship with America is crucial, and they judge their leaders by their access to the Oval Office. Bush clearly favors Sharon over the hardliner Netanyahu.

Sharon is seen at home a strong leader and master of political manipulation and trickery. His soft spot is corruption. Next week, the state attorney is expected to announce the indictment of Sharon's son Omri, a Knesset member and important political operative, on fraud charges in his father's primary campaign several years ago (dad claimed he didn't know what was going on in his campaign.) Sharon Jr. is seeking a plea bargain, but Mazuz is playing hardball, demanding a prison term. If Omri goes to trial, his father may be called as a prosecution witness. It's hard to overestimate the embarrassment and political risk that would be involved in this scenario. It would be seen as the son's sacrifice for his father. Omri's indictment is pending a Knesset vote to lift his parliamentary immunity, but it would be hard to block it there, given the alignment of political forces.

Many questions are still unanswered in the boiling atmosphere of Israel in summer 2005: Will democracy prevail over its challengers, allowing the Gaza settlements to be peacefully evacuated? Who will be Israel's next leader? What will the orange troops next sound their battle cry? Will Gaza become a working model for Palestinian statehood, or a haven for Islamic terrorists? And last, but not least, during his second term will George W. Bush stand by his pledge to help create a Palestinian state ?

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