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Thursday, Nov 26, 2009
The hottest 2006 Senate race is the stuff of Democratic Party dreams. But does the anti-choice Pennsylvania state treasurer from Scranton have what it takes to unseat the Christian right's poster boy?
Jul 15, 2005 | When Bob Casey Jr. won the Pennsylvania state treasurer's race last fall, he rang up 3.35 million votes, more than anyone running for any office in the state -- ever. With that decisive victory, the national Democrats came calling. They were in the market for a Democratic candidate for one of the most important races of 2006: the campaign to unseat Sen. Rick Santorum. After some lobbying from the likes of Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell and U.S. Sens. Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer, and only four months after winning his race for state treasurer, Casey announced he was in.
And so the stage was set for the nation's next marquee Senate race, which holds the stuff of Democratic Party dreams. In Bob Casey Jr., the anti-choice son of the late Pennsylvania governor, the party sees its chance to oust the poster boy of the right who posed as saint-in-waiting on the cover of the New York Times Magazine, is a loyal supporter of President Bush, and is the No. 3 leader in the GOP Senate.
Casey, whose late father was a staple of state politics for a generation and a two-term governor, was recruited to run against the conservative Santorum primarily because of his anti-choice views. This is high irony given that the senior Casey clashed with national Democrats over his anti-choice views. But as an anti-choice Democrat capable of tapping into Pennsylvania's socially conservative rural and blue-collar vote and its urban bloc, many Democrats blissfully predict Casey Jr. will run Santorum ragged. And Democrats have some good reasons to be hopeful.
Santorum seeks reelection in a state that twice went to Bill Clinton, then to Al Gore and last year to John Kerry. A quarter of the state's population is 55 or older (only Florida has a higher percentage of elderly) at a time when the president and his Social Security agenda, which Santorum has loyally backed, slip in national polls. Early in-state polls show Santorum lagging behind Casey. A Franklin & Marshall College poll this month has Casey up seven, and a Quinnipiac University poll released July 13 has him ahead by 11 points.
One might think, from all of this, that controversial incumbent Santorum, a national leader of conservative faith-based politics -- whose new book "It Takes a Family" likens abortion to slavery -- is now too far right for Pennsylvania. One might think his days are numbered in a state with a Democratic voter registration edge of 542,000-plus. And one might think the oh-so-many who view Santorum as intolerant, cocky and self-righteous are primed for victory.
"This is a golden opportunity for Democrats. It definitely is," says Philadelphia political analyst Larry Ceisler. "Even though Pennsylvania is a blue state with red senators, Santorum's out of sync politically with the state, and he is where he is because he's always had opponents who ran bad campaigns."
Still, this race looks different from a national perspective than it does locally. For reasons including money, issues and the nature of the combatants, things aren't what they seem from outside looking in.
Casey, for example, though widely liked and admired, did not do well in a 2002 run for governor, a race far different than the three low-profile state row-office campaigns he's won. (Before his election as treasurer, Casey served two terms as auditor general, an office also held by his father, and lost a gubernatorial primary to Rendell.)
Under bright lights, Casey can be halting and dull. His campaign for governor was badly focused, an almost entirely negative race that never told voters who he is or what he believes. High expectations, based mainly on his likability and name identification, never were met. As a result, some worry about another bad campaign, and a few key in-state Democrats are hoping for evidence this campaign is different, that Casey is a different candidate, this time around. "We want to help, lots of folks want to help, but not if it's another run like the last one," says a source close to a top elected Democrat.
Santorum, on the other hand, who's been underrated his entire career, has never lost an election. He's supple with spin and quick on his feet, has killer instincts and a seemingly innate drive to survive. These two candidates might look the same on paper (both 40-something, ramrod straight pro-life Catholics with a bunch of kids), but they are not. Santorum is a polished politician with national stature and experience; Casey is a state treasurer from Scranton.
There are other snags for Casey -- on money and issues. Because he shares Santorum's basic views on abortion, guns and stem-cell research (against, for and against), hardcore Democrats worry about enthusiasm among liberal leaders and rank and filers, which translates, of course, into cash.
Peter Buttenweiser, one of the nation's major Democratic donors and fundraisers, actively works for Casey and says big-dollar givers are leery. "They're certainly concerned and they've registered concerns," Buttenweiser says. He adds, however, that he thinks that will change next year as more Democrats get excited about the prospect of defeating Santorum: "The most important thing is to keep at it and keep on it ... I think there will be fervor in this race about returning this seat to a more moderate person."
If so, the expected fervor seems to be simmering slowly.
New campaign-finance reports filed for the reporting period ending June 30 are expected to show Casey with a little more than $1 million (really not bad given the timeline). But Santorum raked in that much at one event with Bush in Pennsylvania -- to add to the $2.8 million he was sitting on after the last report at the end of March. Insiders in both camps predict vast amounts of funding from the Internet and 527 organizations in a campaign that could top $50 million. And nobody doubts Casey eventually will have enough resources to compete. But nobody doubts, either, that Santorum will outraise and outspend Casey by a lopsided margin.
