One solution, once considered racist but which has gained growing support among Israeli Jews, is "populated territorial swap," or "soft transfer," in which Israel would "trade" Arab-populated areas within Israel to a future Palestinian state in return for the West Bank "settlement blocks" where most Israeli settlers live.

Sharon says, "If they come and propose to negotiate an exchange, in return for strategically important areas [in the West Bank] where Jews live, it can be discussed. But it must be done by consent, there is no possibility of forcing it." Most mainstream politicians shy away from this politically explosive proposal, but Ehud Barak, Sharon's predecessor, discreetly toyed with the idea before leaving office. When finance minister Binyamin Netanyahu -- Sharon's challenger for Likud and national leadership -- declared in late 2003, "Our demographic problem lies with the Israeli Arabs, rather than the Palestinians," he was criticized for racism.

Last year Avigdor Lieberman, a former minister, declared his readiness to leave his home in Nokdim, a settlement near Bethlehem, if there is a "genuine ethnic division." Lieberman, the former chief of staff for Netanyahu, is a far-right-winger who has openly declared his suspicion of Israeli Arabs. But many more moderate Israelis have also embraced the idea of a demographic swap. Prominent Israeli geographers and demographers like Della Pergola have proposed that Israel give the Palestinian state the so-called triangle around the Arab town of Umm-el-Fahm, a center of the Islamic movement in Israel, which is adjacent to the West Bank. This would take about 250,000 Arabs out of the demographic equation. Even Henry Kissinger joined the bandwagon in a December 2004 article.

The Umm-el-Fahm residents reject the idea. "It's unacceptable to us," says Mayor Hashim Mahajna. "We are Israeli citizens and would like to remain as we are. These ideas are racist, illegal and extremist." Others, like Dayan, oppose it for practical reasons. They fear that giving away the "triangle" would fuel demands for Arab autonomy in other parts of Israel, like the Galilee, where Jews are a minority even today.

The demographic fear is already influencing changes in Israel's naturalization policy, which is based on ethnic distinction. The Israeli Law of Return grants automatic citizenship to Jews and their relatives, thus promising a safe haven to Jews from all over the world. Creating a Jewish sanctuary has been the main cause of Zionism since its inception in the late 19th century, and the Law of Return is its practical expression. Non-Jews are subject to more restrictive immigration laws. In the past, Israel allowed "family unification," in which Palestinians who married Israelis could become Israeli citizens. (Almost all such marriages are between Palestinians and Israeli Arabs.) According to official statistics, 55,000 such requests have been accepted since 1968. Compounded with natural growth, these naturalized citizens enlarged the Israeli Arab population by 137,000 -- one-tenth of its current strength.

In 2003, at the height of the intifada, Sharon's government decided to halt the process through a temporary legislation, which it justified by security concerns. The security service argued that many Palestinians who received Israeli citizenship had been recruited by the Palestinian terror groups. Although the argument was extremely weak -- the government cited only 20 such cases, and released the names of only a few of those -- the political system acquiesced to the security service. An Arab civil-rights group appealed against the temporary law, and the matter is pending before the Israeli Supreme Court, which has yet to rule over it, but already indicated its uneasiness with the temporary measure. (The United Nations called for Israel to rescind the law, saying it "flagrantly discriminates" against Israeli Arabs and Palestinians.) The government decided recently to soften the provisions and ask the court for an extension, in order to devise permanent legislation.

The government's plan, approved by Sharon's cabinet on Sunday, is to draft a new, tougher immigration law for non-Jews. Sharon is no longer pretending that security is the reason for the law. "Israel's Jewishness must be preserved and the issue here is Israel's existence. Israel is the only state that the Jewish people have, and it is its right to remain a Jewish and democratic state," said the prime minister in the discussion. Sharon's national-security advisor, Giora Eiland, presented the findings of an interagency group reinforced with academic legal experts, including well-known Israeli liberals. He argued that Israel must preserve its Jewish identity through a long-term Jewish majority, and that the growing Arab minority would eventually demand collective national rights. The legal experts, professors Amnon Rubinstein (a former education minister from the left-wing party Meretz) and Ruth Gabizon (a former chairwoman of the Israeli Civil Liberties Association) argue that international law does not mandate that automatic citizenship be conferred in cases of transnational marriages. The team recommended restricting the ability to gain Israeli citizenship by marriage, citing new legislation in Denmark and Holland, designed to reduce Muslim immigration through financial and other limits. A high-level committee headed by Ophir Pines-Paz, the interior minister from the Labor Party, was appointed to draft the new legislation.

Sharon has other demographic measures in his mind, like expelling thousands of illegal Palestinian residents across the West Bank barrier, encouraging Jewish immigration (despite the lack of willing candidates) and easing conversions to Judaism (against a reluctant Rabbinic establishment). Nevertheless, these are hardly more than temporary pain relievers. They will not spare Israel from the compelling need to face -- sooner rather than later -- crucial questions about its identity, its borders and its treatment of its non-Jewish citizens. Otherwise, demography will decide by itself.

Or maybe not: A group of die-hard right-wingers, Israelis and American Jews, has tried recently to undermine the debate by suggesting that the Palestinian population numbers are inflated. Based on actual birth and death statistics and some controversial assumptions, they argued that there are only 2.4 million Palestinians -- rather than the Palestinian Authority's 3.8 million figure. Fewer Palestinians means no demographic threat; hence no pressing need to leave the West Bank and Gaza. Their findings, however, were rejected by Della Pergola, and by a team from RAND Corp., which published a blueprint for a Palestinian state.

Sharon's Gaza withdrawal is a step for "demographic security," wrote Yossi Alpher, a prominent Israeli analyst. Nevertheless, it is only a very partial step, which may at best buy Israel several years before its moment of demographic truth. Will it rise to the occasion, or continue to try to postpone dealing with the inevitable?

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