First, the number of death sentences nationwide has been declining as more and more states have introduced life without parole. Second, although all jurors in a capital murder trial must favor the death penalty, some jurors are clearly going to be less gung-ho about the idea of executing someone than the average Texas prosecutor. Jurors' decisions are likely to be less cluttered by any need to prove how tough they can be on violent criminals. And unlike prosecutors who come into these cases prepared to argue that the defendant deserves death, jurors are supposed to listen to both sides of the argument. Third, when jurors are confronted with a real live human being, some may be queasy about taking another life and may be open to mitigating factors that prosecutors generally pooh-pooh, including evidence that the defendant had a horrible childhood, was sexually abused or beaten, is mentally ill, or was high on drugs at the time of the crime. Finally, jurors may opt for life over death when they have lingering, undefined doubts about a defendant's culpability.

In short, jurors are unpredictable, and even though they may support the death penalty, are likely to be more open to life without parole if they're given a clear understanding that there is no chance a defendant will be released.

Lucio's bill has already been approved by the Texas Senate and by a House committee and is now awaiting action in the full House. Approval there is considered likely.

Why the Legislature seems more willing to contemplate "truth in sentencing" this year when it has been intransigent on the subject in past sessions owes to a confluence of factors. Perhaps most important is that Texans, like other Americans, have begun to recognize how seriously flawed their criminal justice system really is. Although Perry and his predecessor, George W. Bush, seemed to view the system as some sort of immaculate conception, Texas newspapers have been filled with reports over the past two years about an ongoing scandal in the Houston police department's crime lab, where multiple errors have been discovered in the testing of DNA, ballistic, serology and toxicology evidence. At the same time, a growing number of U.S. Supreme Court opinions have rebuked the Texas courts for tolerating police and prosecutorial excesses -- including the withholding of evidence and the racial profiling of jurors -- and a law that violated the rights of defendants with mental retardation. Meanwhile, 15 innocent people were released from the state's prisons based on DNA evidence, and eight men were released from the state's death row due to evidence of innocence. Texans may be unusually tough on crime, but most of them presumably don't believe in punishing or executing innocent people.

An additional reason for progress on life without parole this year is that a significant rift has opened between prosecutors from the state's largest counties -- accounting for 75 percent of the state's murder trials -- who continue to oppose any change in the law, and prosecutors in small towns and rural counties. The latter are no less enthusiastic about the death penalty, but they've come to recognize that prosecuting a time-consuming death penalty case can bankrupt their treasuries. For these prosecutors it makes more sense to empower jurors with an honest, clear-headed understanding of their options and allow them to be the final arbiters of a murderer's fate.

Meanwhile, Perry, a die-hard death penalty supporter who is expected to face a tough reelection challenge from U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, sits on the fence in the life-without-parole debate. But with 78 percent of Texans saying they favor a true life-without-parole law, it seems highly likely the governor will go along with the popular will if the bill clears the Legislature before the current session ends later this month.

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