The best way to see how privatization would really work is to examine one of the plans outlined in detail in late 2001 by President Bush's own Commission to Strengthen Social Security, under the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who President Bush mentioned Wednesday night, and Richard D. Parsons, chief executive of Time Warner.

The forthcoming Bush proposal looks as if it will be based on this plan. It would allow individuals to divert up to four percentage points of Social Security taxes (or about one-third of a worker's total wages paid over to Social Security )into private accounts, as the president said in his speech.

But the gains from private accounts would not nearly balance the Social Security system, the commission found. Large additional cuts in guaranteed benefits were needed. The commission's plan cut guaranteed benefits by indexing them to price increases rather than wage increases.

Here's how that works. The current Social Security system replaces a certain amount of a worker's wages -- say, about 40 percent for middle-income workers. As wages rise, so do benefits. But wages in fact rise much faster over time than do prices. Thus, under the commission proposal, benefits linked only to price increases would ultimately be much lower than the present Social Security system would pay.

How much lower? For a typical one-earner family, guaranteed benefits would be about 75 percent of the level promised by the present system in 2042 and, stunningly, only half of the level in 2075. This is the dirty little secret of privatization.

The president seems to think that adding gains due to investment in private accounts will excite younger people. But even if a person earned, say, 4.5 percent a year in a portfolio of stock and bonds over 30 years, and paid a minimal investment management fee to boot, returns for a typical one-earner couple whose breadwinner retires in 2042 will still be less than the benefits promised under the present system.

The eyes may be about to glaze over, I know. But just one last technical point. Many of those who opt for private accounts will not earn 4.5 percent a year. Many and perhaps most will earn just 3 percent a year or so, and even less. Under these circumstances, benefits including those gains from private accounts will actually be lower down the road than if even nothing were done to reform the current system.

Let me say that one more time, because it is a stunner. If the nation makes no reforms, the reduced benefits -- down to about 70 percent of promised levels -- will still be higher for the typical retiree than benefits will be under the likely Bush administration privatization plan.

The president goes blithely on, however. He may believe more in the certainty of equity market returns than he should. No doubt, ideology also has a part. For all the president's praise of Social Security Wednesday night, it has always bothered those who favor minimal government.

There are also practical political considerations. The success of Social Security has been a political advantage for the Democrats. Why not take that away from them?

And, of course, it will be a boon for the Street. The president argues that the system will carefully monitor managerial fees. But Austan Goolsbee, an economist at the University of Chicago, computed last fall that even modest fees will accumulate into an enormous amount over 75 years. In fact, the present value of those fees is $940 billion, or about one-fourth of the cumulative gap between Social Security's income and outgo over those 75 years.

Goolsbee may have overshot the mark some, especially if government picks up some of the administrative expense (which will cost taxpayers, anyway). But there is little doubt the fees will mount, especially if individuals are given some choice in their investments and Wall Street has the incentive to attract them.

Teresa Ghilarducci, an economist from Notre Dame, thinks there is another, even more compelling lure for Wall Street. As baby boomers retire, they will stop buying stocks on balance and start selling them. So the Street needs new sources of purchasing power to hold up stock prices. What better than privatization?

There is a sensible course. On Wednesday, President Bush argued that the nation should fix Social Security once and for all. But there is no forecasting the future that far in advance with certainty. It is entirely possible the economy will do better than expected over the next 50 to 70 years, wages will rise rapidly, and payroll taxes will more than exceed expected Social Security outlays.

Experts like Robert Ball, the former Social Security Administration official, and Alicia Munnell, a former Clinton economist now at Boston College, argue that the nation should begin to make small changes now. Benefits should be somewhat reduced and taxes raised only slightly. In 10 years or so, the nation can make another adjustment, depending on the outlook at that point.

This is not the ideological bold stroke the president is looking for. It will provide no long-term political blow to the Democrats, nor will it delight one's Wall Street friends. It will probably not make history, either. But it is the best way to solve the nation's Social Security and generate confidence in the system.

Now the president is off on a tour to sell his Social Security ideas. If he ultimately wins, it will be a tragedy. It will transform Social Security from a guaranteed retirement benefit to a gamble. Not all will lose, but many will. We could do little worse for our children. Fortunately, I think this is one battle the president will lose.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected since its original publication.

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