While Dean has been a more consistent opponent of the war in Iraq, Dean and Frost -- and, indeed, most of the DNC candidates -- agree far more often than they disagree on political issues and the way they should be framed. There's a general consensus among the candidates that John Kerry lost in November because the Democrats were unable to persuade voters that they could be trusted with America's national security. "We have a strong record in that regard," Frost said, "and I wish we had spent more time communicating that. We were the ones who first proposed the Department of Homeland Security, and the Republicans opposed it. We were the ones who first proposed the 9/11 commission, and the Republicans resisted it. We have a good story to tell."

Frost said that the Democrats should front some of their "most credible" voices on national security, singling out Rep. Jane Harman of California and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. For more liberal Democrats, that kind of suggestion is another nail in the Frost coffin: It was Lieberman, after all, who this week urged Democrats to deliver a "resounding vote" in favor of Condoleezza Rice to show national unity on the war in Iraq. On domestic issues, the DNC candidates agree that their party must do more to address the question of "moral values." But several of them believe that the role of values in the November election has been overstated and that the response of some Democrats -- that the party needs to move more to the right -- is misguided. Fowler, for one, says the press's post-election emphasis on values was the result of Republican manipulation and spin. "That was a brilliant move by Karl Rove and the Republicans," Fowler said. They woke up the day after the election and said, 'We won, we actually won,' and then, the next day or that night, they said, 'Hey, let's win something else. What can we do to win the post-election?' So they said to the press, 'Look at this poll. It says if you have morals and values you voted for the Republicans.' And the press said, 'Uh-huh,' and then the Democrats said, 'Wait a minute, we have morals . . . don't we?'"

Whether "moral values" turned the election or not, each of the candidates in the DNC race believes that Democrats must engage in a conversation with voters about values. For Frost, that means making sure voters know, among other things, that Democrats believe in God. For Dean and Rosenberg, it means explaining that "values" is more than just a code word for opposition to abortion and gay rights. In Sacramento last week at the DNC's Western Caucus meeting, Dean said that "moral values" mean telling the truth before sending young Americans to war, protecting the environment, building a better education system and not leaving a massive federal deficit for future generations. "So let us be the party of moral values, let us be the party of economic opportunity, let us stand up for equality in this country again," Dean told a cheering crowd of supporters. Fowler echoed those words later in the week in an interview with Salon, saying that Democrats should explain their values as "opportunity, access, getting a fair shake if you play by the rules, a strong family, a strong community and safe senior citizens."

With Roemer, Webb and Leland seemingly far from the front, Fowler and Rosenberg appear to be in the best position to prevail if anti-Dean voters keep Dean from winning and Frost fails to win over enough "anybody but Dean" voters. Fowler and Rosenberg are both young, and they both argue that they're best-of-both-worlds alternatives to Dean and Frost. "What you get with me is a proven track record of winning in red states and the proven history of working with grass roots and 'net roots,'" Rosenberg said. Not surprisingly, there's a fair amount of sniping between Fowler and Rosenberg camps. Rosenberg's aides grumble that Fowler is running on the coattails of his father, former DNC chairman Don Fowler. Fowler, in turn, dismisses Rosenberg as an articulate guy who is "winning the chattering classes in San Francisco and New York" but not making much progress with voting members of the Democratic National Committee.

Fowler and Rosenberg both talk a good game about being first-tier candidates, but their real job now is to build enough support to make sure they survive the first ballot -- in each round of voting on Feb. 12, the candidate with the least votes drops out -- and then to make sure that they're the second or third choice of a whole lot of DNC voters. "Howard Dean can't win if he doesn't win outright on the first ballot," Rosenberg says.

Dean's fortunes -- and everything else -- should become a bit clearer in the week ahead. The candidates converge on New York this weekend for a final meet-and-greet session with DNC voters; when that session is over, labor leaders and state party chairs will begin to roll out their endorsements in earnest. The Democrats may not know where they're headed next week, but they may well have a better sense of who is going to take them there.

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