Most significantly, the states may be the last line of defense for abortion rights. If Bush is able to appoint Supreme Court judges who overturn Roe vs. Wade, the abortion question will likely revert back to the states. If that happens, according to the Center for Reproductive Rights, 30 states are poised to ban abortion. Almost undoubtedly, there would then be a push to make abortion illegal nationwide, which would leave pro-choice states relying on the doctrine of federalism, or states' rights, to defend themselves.

"If you are intent on making sure that women can get abortions, you're going to lobby your state legislature," says Marci Hamilton, a constitutional law scholar at Benjamin Cardozo School of Law who argued the landmark 1997 federalism case, Boerne vs. Flores, before the Supreme Court. (That case invalidated the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, a 1993 law that exempted religious groups from some state and local ordinances.) "The decision to go to the state rather than the federal government is federalism."

Such an embrace of federalism would be opportunistic and even hypocritical. But that's nothing new. "It's all about power," says Hamilton. "That's the only criterion."

As Hamilton points out, many conservatives stop advocating for states' rights as soon as they get their hands on the levers of federal power. The Bush administration is currently challenging California's medical marijuana law, which will go before the Supreme Court next year, and Oregon's assisted suicide law. The Federal Marriage Amendment, which in its current form would also ban civil unions, strips states of the power to regulate marriage, which previously was their exclusive domain.

"Once conservatives got in power they forgot federalism," Hamilton says. "They left that principle in the dust and rushed to control the states that were now engaging in social experiments."

"What's happening is that the liberals are getting the issue," she continues. "The issue is how do you get power in a circumstance where you don't control the federal government. If the answer is federalism, which I think is obviously the only answer, what's going to happen is that all those liberal law professors who were extremely critical of the Supreme Court decision in Boerne, those law professors will have to eat their words."

Of course, given the cynicism with which both sides deploy states' rights doctrines, it's not clear where right-wing judges will stand when it comes to battling the left wing. In the famous case of Bush vs. Gore in 2000, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia suddenly abandoned his long-standing commitment to states' rights when he ruled that Florida had violated the equal protection clause of the Constitution's Fourteenth Amendment, which holds that no state can "deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws."

Still, Hamilton believes that many justices will remain true to their previous opinions even if they don't like the outcome. For example, she says, "The Supreme Court is highly likely to reverse the decision that marijuana cannot be used," upholding California's medical marijuana law.

Using state governments to protect rights locally, rather than nationally, makes many liberals uncomfortable because it means leaving their red state brethren to the tender mercies of the right. If those who believe in gay rights spend all their time shoring up protections in the blue states, they're leaving vulnerable gays and lesbians in less tolerant locales on their own. Similarly, to give up on nationwide abortion rights, in favor of local ones, would be a retreat from the ideas of sisterhood and solidarity that have been central to the feminist movement.

At this point, though, liberals may not have a choice. Besides, on an emotional level, some have already given up their dreams of reforming the country in order to protect their own backyards.

The Seattle alternative weekly the Stranger nails this defensive mood in a recent manifesto titled "The Urban Archipelago: It's the Cities, Stupid." "It's time to state something that we've felt for a long time," writes the paper's editors, "but have been too polite to say out loud: Liberals, progressives, and Democrats do not live in a country that stretches from the Atlantic to the Pacific, from Canada to Mexico. We live on a chain of islands. We are citizens of the Urban Archipelago, the United Cities of America."

"In cities all over America, distressed liberals are talking about fleeing to Canada or, better yet, seceding from the Union," the piece continues. "We can't literally secede and, let's admit it, we don't really want to live in Canada. It's too cold up there and in our heart-of-hearts we hate hockey. We can secede emotionally, however, by turning our backs on the heartland. We can focus on our issues, our urban issues, and promote our shared urban values."

According to the Stranger, this means abandoning a commitment to things like gun control and abortion rights on a national scale. "We won't concern ourselves if red states restrict choice," it says. "We'll just make sure that abortion remains safe and legal in the cities where we live, and the states we control, and when your daughter or sister or mother dies in a botched abortion, we'll try not to feel too awful about it."

Ironically, the Stranger suggests that this means adopting a right-wing attitude toward taxes and social welfare. "To red-state voters, to the rural voters, residents of small, dying towns, and soulless sprawling exburbs, we say this: Fuck off. Your issues are no longer our issues. We're going to battle our bleeding-heart instincts and ignore pangs of misplaced empathy. We will no longer concern ourselves with a health-care crisis that disproportionately impacts rural areas. Instead we will work toward winning health care one blue state at a time."

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