"Four hours of your time beats four years of Bush"

In Florida, the time for attack ads and propaganda campaigns is over. Now it's all about getting out the vote.

By Farhad Manjoo

Nov 1, 2004 | Just before the sun sets and trick-or-treaters overrun the sidewalks here early on Sunday evening, Justin Allegro, a 23-year-old door-to-door canvasser with the League of Conservation Voters, parks his van in an affluent Orlando neighborhood and sets off on yet another mission to convince a dozen or so undecided or infrequent voters of the virtues of John Kerry.

By any reasonable logic, this night, Halloween, isn't the best time to be hawking a political message -- it's Sunday, it's a holiday, and people may resent that you've come to their door without a funny costume, asking for much more than a simple handful of candy. Allegro, who's been at this for months, concedes that he'd rather not be out this late. But what can you do? Orlando is the swingiest city in the swingiest state in the nation, and with fewer than 48 hours to go before the big day, reasonable logic doesn't really apply.

And, anyway, despite the awkwardness, an amazing thing happens here. Just as Allegro and I hit the streets, a man of about 30 who's out with his little girl spots us walking his way and yells, somewhat suspiciously, "So what are you guys selling?"

"We're selling John Kerry!" Allegro responds with a smile. Knocking on thousands of doors has sharpened Allegro's people skills, and like many of the veteran canvassers here he possesses an almost magical ability to disarm strangers, even folks with Bush-Cheney bumper stickers affixed to their pickups. In this case, though, his particular skills aren't necessary. Hearing that we're there for Kerry, the man smiles and says, "You know, I'm a lifelong Republican and I already voted for Kerry." (Floridians have been voting at early voting stations since Oct. 18.) The man, who identifies himself only as Bart, then engages us in a three-minute discussion on the many and various shortcomings of George W. Bush. He explains that he works in the software industry and has frequent dealings with people in the Middle East; Bush has not, in his assessment, handled things well over there. Reelecting him, he says, would be a disaster. As Allegro and I walk off, Bart points to each of the other houses on the street, telling us who lives there and whether or not they'd be receptive to Kerry. Many people in the neighborhood are Republican, Bart says, but many are probably persuadable.

In the two days that I followed pro-Kerry canvassers as they walked around all kinds of neighborhoods in Orlando and Miami, there were more than a few encounters like this one, surprising moments of intense passion expressed by Republican or independent voters for Kerry. If you're an anxious or even pessimistic Kerry supporter -- and in this razor-thin election, which Kerry fan isn't a little bit shaky? -- these encounters can have a thrilling tonic effect.

On the other hand, when you're with canvassers, devastation is never further than the next door down. There's a reason veteran political consultants get frustrated by the kind of politics both Kerry and Bush have been forced to practice in this election, this do-or-die reliance on new, undecided and infrequent voters: It's hard work, and it's risky. For every door at which you find a newly registered voter pledging to go out and vote ASAP, you'll go through half a dozen doors where the new voter isn't home, or doesn't answer, or shoos you away, or, previously undecided, has swung to Bush, or, worse, is, astonishingly, still undecided.

To make things worse, the weather here is hot and humid, particularly unsuited to long hours of door-to-door work. You can't go out for more than an hour without feeling sick with dehydration from the heat and sticky humidity. The bugs are out, too; in one house, a huge wasps nest dangled from a potted plant at the front door. The canvassers I was with marked those people down as "not home."

And then you've got to deal with the voters themselves: Most are quite accommodating and friendly, but the ones you remember, and the ones who may keep the canvassers awake at night, are those who refuse to open their doors and instead yell at you through a window. This happened just a couple of times when I was out, but each time it sent shivers down my spine.

Although there are signs that John Kerry is doing well in early voting here, an on-the-ground view of his GOTV operation reveals it to be far from a guaranteed success. For each candidate, GOTV efforts are vital. The strategic fight in this presidential race -- the high-level advertising and journalism campaign -- is now over. Swift boats, wolf ads, Sinclair, "Fahrenheit 9/11," Dan Rather's memos -- all that's history. Now it all comes down to tactics: On the Democratic side in swing states like this one, the campaign in the last hours will be conducted by van and on foot, by college kids and retirees and aging hippies shipped in by the hundreds from New York, D.C. and all points west, such as the two dozen or so people here from Austin, Texas.

Most of the Democratic volunteers are working with America Votes, an umbrella organization that encompasses some of the nation's largest advocacy groups, including America Coming Together, the MoveOn.org Voter Fund, EMILY's List, the AFL-CIO, the SEIU, the Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters. Each of the groups in the coalition is charged with targeting a different voter demographic or constituency; ACT is going after what might be called the Democratic base, the union groups are going after labor, ACORN is targeting minorities.

The League of Conservation Voters, which is officially nonpartisan and does not usually conduct get-out-the-vote operations in presidential races, has one of the most interesting tasks -- to target undecideds and "persuadables," Democrats and Republicans who fit the demographic profile of someone who might switch sides, and who may have a history of not voting very often. Between Friday and the poll-close time on Tuesday, 1,600 League volunteers will knock on 80,000 doors in Orlando. Allan Oliver, Florida state director of the League, says he's confident that his effort will add a small bump to Kerry's totals in Florida. Not huge, but enough. "You get 1 or 2 percent and, boy, you're talking about the whole election."

Next Page: One of the best ways of boosting a voter's likelihood of voting is by talking to the voter at his door right before the election

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