October surprise!

Osama bin Laden makes an unexpected appearance on videotape, giving the jitters to two already high-anxiety campaigns.

Oct 29, 2004 | The October surprise has come, and it's not from Karl Rove. As John Kerry was speaking at a rally in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Friday, a seemingly healthy and relaxed Osama bin Laden, who hadn't been seen on tape since late last year, emerged in a new videotape first aired on al-Jazeera. "I want to explain to you why 9/11 took place," bin Laden said in Arabic in a message to the American people. He issued a threat that if U.S. policies don't change, "the American people can expect to see more."

"Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al-Qaida," bin Laden said. "Your security is in your hands." In the 18-minute videotape, bin Laden appeared before a brown background and wears a golden cloak. He accused George W. Bush of misleading the American people, and even taunted him "Fahrenheit 9/11"-style for acting slowly on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001. "It never occurred to us that the commander in chief of the American forces would leave 50,000 citizens in the two towers to face those horrors alone at a time when they most needed him because he thought listening to a child discussing her goat and its ramming was more important than the planes and their ramming of the skyscrapers," he said, mangling what transpired in the Florida classroom that day, according to the Reuters translation.

With bin Laden's surprising reappearance just four days before the election, a presidential race that had already been maddeningly close became even tougher to call. The bin Laden tape could be just the added factor that tips this election -- but heading into the final weekend of campaigning, it was tough to see yet just how.

After Kerry's speech in West Palm Beach, the candidate huddled with his aides to assess how best to respond, and received a briefing from his adviser Rand Beers, who was briefed by national security officials. The campaign herded reporters onto the press plane with no comment, then hastily announced that Kerry would made a statement out on the tarmac, sending reporters scurrying out of the plane. "As Americans, we are absolutely united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists," Kerry said. "They are barbarians. And I will stop at absolutely nothing to hunt down, capture or kill the terrorists wherever they are, whatever it takes. Period." Bush spoke to reporters about the bin Laden tape in Toledo. "Let me make this very clear," he said. "Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country. I am sure Sen. Kerry agrees with me on this. I also want to say to the American people that we are at war with these terrorists, and I am confident we will prevail."

It was unclear whether and how the Kerry campaign would use the bin Laden remarks against Bush. For months, Kerry has criticized Bush for letting bin Laden slip away at Tora Bora in December 2001. Soon after the videotape surfaced Friday, senior Kerry advisor Richard Holbrooke told CNN that "the tape shows he's still around."

But even as Holbrooke was speaking, the campaign staff was scrambling to come up with the right message. As Kerry flew from West Palm Beach to Miami, Kerry spokesman David Wade told reporters on the plane that he "wouldn't speculate about the politics" of the bin Laden tape. "Once Kerry and the traveling press corps landed in Miami, spokesman Mike McCurry said: "The American people are not gonna let Osama bin Laden deny them the opportunity to hear the debate that theyve been hearing between the candidates."

Kerry didn't mention the tape at a roaring rally in Miami Friday night; in fact, he didn't mention bin Laden at all. In a message that may have been meant for the local crowd or may have been meant for bin Laden, Kerry said that he would stand by Israel and hold Arab countries responsible for acts of aggression.

If Kerry steers clear of bin Laden for the rest of the race, it will be a major departure from the way he has campaigned so far. It was Kerry, after all, who reminded Bush during their third debate that he had once said he was "not that concerned about [bin Laden]." With bin Laden's reappearance, voters will plainly be concerned about him as they go to the polls on Tuesday.

After the initial scramble to find a message, Kerry aides seemed comfortable with the way the candidate is handling the issue. They were working it hard -- backstage at the Miami event, McCurry had one cell phone in his hand and another at his ear -- but they were all smiles as they watched Springsteen and Kerry feed off the energy of an excited crowd.

As Kerry traveled through Florida Friday, his campaign fanned out across the country in a far-flung fight to find 270 Electoral College votes. It's not just about Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida anymore. Kerry will spend crucial campaign time in Michigan this weekend, a state he should have locked up by now. Al Gore and Alexandra Kerry and maybe Howard Dean are headed to Hawaii, where Democrats are nervous about close polls in a state Gore won by nearly 20 percentage points four years ago. Bill Clinton and Teresa Heinz Kerry have been dispatched to New Mexico in the hopes of keeping a blue state from tipping red. Iowa is close. Minnesota is close. Wisconsin is close.

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