Friday, Sep 5, 2008
Four years ago, he drew celebrities and crowds. This time, as it wheezes toward the finish line, the Nader campaign has the feel of Spinal Tap's last tour.
Oct 27, 2004 | "You have to be willing to be humiliated," Ralph Nader told an audience recently. "I love it." The setting was the University of New Hampshire in Durham as Nader mused aloud on the trials facing leaders of alternative political movements in the United States. Like many things the perpetual candidate says these days, however, the statement rang hollow. Ralph Nader may or may not feel humiliated by finishing an increasingly distant third in presidential elections. But he certainly does not appear to love it.
Why should he? Nader's latest presidential effort -- No. 4 if you're counting -- is a sputtering campaign struggling to draw support. Yes, every vote counts. Yes, Nader could again be, as he was in 2000, one of the decisive factors in the outcome of the election. But if so, it will not be because his campaign is generating momentum down the stretch, or is a success on its own terms. It is not.
You might not realize this, given the recent spate of urgent appeals from former Nader supporters imploring progressive voters to abandon the Independent candidate. And you wouldn't know it from reading the recent front-page story in the New York Times ominously casting Nader as "just the kind of threat the Democrats feared." In reality, the Democrats would be far more afraid if Nader were campaigning strongly -- or if the antiwar movement had produced a more compelling third-party candidate than a notoriously thin-skinned consumer advocate whose career highlights occurred before today's college-age voters were born. As those of us who have seen Nader in person this month know, his campaign is a relatively low-energy, low-interest affair. Crowds are down. Campaign funds are minimal. The candidate who drew about 3 percent of the popular vote in 2000 is at 1 percent in this year's polls and could finish lower.
To see just how Nader is struggling, consider the trajectory of his campaign in 2000, and contrast it to his 2004 effort. On Aug. 25, 2000, Nader drew 10,579 supporters, who paid $7 each, to a "super rally" at the Portland Coliseum. There followed a string of "super rallies" with five-figure attendance numbers: 11,500 in Minneapolis, 12,000 at the Fleet Center in Boston, 10,000 in Chicago, and about 15,000 inside New York's Madison Square Garden, at $20 a ticket.
In 2004, Nader events are far smaller. On Oct. 5, for example, Nader spoke to about 65 supporters in Portland, Maine, before moving on to the University of New Hampshire event, where just over 100 supporters showed, and finishing the day speaking to an audience of about 500 at the University of Vermont. Nader's largest crowd of the month appears to have been about 800 in Berkeley, on Oct. 11, but I counted a more typical 225 in the audience last Saturday as Nader spoke on the Rutgers campus in Piscataway, N.J. Nader will end October having held over 30 campaign events, yet his total audience for the month could comfortably fit inside Madison Square Garden. At many events, anti-Nader groups protest outside; inside, former supporters often confront him during the question-and-answer sessions.
Meanwhile, the celebrity supporters who adorned Nader's campaign in 2000 -- including Tim Robbins, Susan Sarandon and, yes, Michael Moore -- have jumped ship. A long list of academics and public figures from Nader's 2000 "Citizens Committee" -- Noam Chomsky, Studs Terkel, Cornel West and dozens more -- now back John Kerry. Even Winona LaDuke, Nader's vice presidential candidate in 2000, endorsed the Democratic candidate this month, saying, "I'm voting my conscience on Nov. 2. I'm voting for John Kerry."
The news gets worse for Nader. His fundraising efforts have sagged, further lowering his campaign's profile. In 2000, according to Federal Election Commission filings, Nader's campaign raised $4.7 million in contributions. In 2004, he has raised $1.5 million, as of mid-October. In 2000, Nader launched a 30-state television advertising campaign in early November, showing spots based on Monster.com's popular ads. It was his second high-profile ad campaign that year, following earlier spots imitating MasterCard's "Priceless" ads. In 2004, Nader is not airing any commercials at all.
These days, a primary Nader campaign fundraising tactic involves an aide or supporter soliciting donations from the audience at a speech, even when the crowd is stocked with broke college students. Different speakers use the same stock line in their pitch -- "There is nothing more liberating than giving Ralph Nader more money than you can afford to give" -- and audience members who pledge $50 or more get a signed copy of Nader's 2002 book, "Crashing the Party." These pledge drives do not always produce their desired results, however.
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