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Sunday, Nov 8, 2009
While you'll never hear George W. Bush make such a statement, veteran observers of California politics say that Schwarzenegger's approach to governing isn't entirely different than Reagan's. "Schwarzenegger is more like the real Reagan than the Reagan of legend," says Jack Pitney, a former Republican National Committee staffer who is now a government professor at California's Claremont McKenna College. "The real Reagan was a pragmatist and a compromiser in just the way Schwarzenegger is."
Not everyone is happy with the results. Democrats fumed this month when Schwarzenegger cut a deal with state university officials that involved redirecting students to community colleges and imposing big tuition increases in exchange for promises of more funding for the schools. Liberals were appalled when Schwarzenegger -- who at times has been quite supportive on gay rights issues -- falsely claimed that San Francisco's issuance of marriage licenses to gay couples had caused "riots" and suggested that people might be injured or killed as a result. Women's groups and others remain upset that Schwarzenegger reneged on his campaign promise to launch a full investigation into charges that he repeatedly harassed and abused women on movie sets and elsewhere in the years before he ran for governor.
But even the most liberal Democratic legislators seem to admire Schwarzenegger's ability to get things done. In just over six months in office, he has won voter approval of a controversial $15 billion bond issue and a spending cap and reached agreement with the Legislature on reform of the state workers' compensation program.
As a result, Schwarzenegger's approval ratings have climbed steadily since he was elected in the race that led to the recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis. According to a Field Poll released in late May, 65 percent of California voters approve of Schwarzenegger's job performance; Ronald Reagan's approval rating as governor never topped 60 percent.
What's more, at a time when the incumbent president inspires "unprecedented levels of polarization" among voters -- 89 percent of Republicans but only 12 percent of Democrats approve of Bush's job performance -- Schwarzenegger comes closer to bridging the partisan divide. According to the Field Poll, 89 percent of Republicans approve of Schwarzenegger's job performance -- but so too do 48 percent of California's Democrats and 58 percent of the state's nonpartisan voters.
With such bipartisan appeal, Schwarzenegger is "America's most precious free agent come October," says Bill Whalen, a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and former aide to Calif. Gov. Pete Wilson. "The question is, how will he divide up his time?"
Schwarzenegger has already signaled that he'll help reelect legislators who work with him, and he may lend support to Republicans in California's congressional delegation. But even if he wants to, there's little Schwarzenegger can do for Bush in California. The state appears safely in the Kerry column, and if it suddenly comes into play, Schwarzenegger's help won't really be necessary; for California to swing Republican, the entire country would already have to be heading hard in that direction. Arnold or no Arnold, Bush would be poised to win reelection by a landslide.
Assuming that doesn't happen, the Bush-Cheney team will likely all but ignore California; it will be a source of campaign cash but not Electoral College votes. "I don't think there will be a serious campaign for president here," says Tony Quinn, the Republican co-editor of the California Target Book, a nonpartisan analysis of congressional and legislative races in the state.
