In Ohio, the war has already begun

But there is also a host of other reasons that Ohioans can be mobilized to oppose Bush, argued Austin, including Attorney General John Ashcroft, Halliburton, body bags coming back from Iraq and the fact that Osama bin Laden is still at large. "There's a reason, pick one," he said. "The biggest advantage for John Kerry is that he's not George Bush." While Ohioans normally are split about 40 percent Democratic, 40 percent Republican and 20 percent independent, Austin argued, the split is now more likely 45-45-10, making mobilizing the hard core even more important.

That might seem to give the Republicans some advantage in Ohio. All of the statewide officials, majorities of both legislative houses, and both U.S. senators are Republicans. The state is culturally conservative, especially in the south. Cincinnati, for example, is regarded as the birthplace of the antiabortion movement; it is the only city with a provision written into its charter prohibiting giving any special status to gays (including equal rights on the job or in housing); and its Indian Hills suburban area is one of the top ZIP codes for Republican fundraising in the country, with such topflight contributors as Cintas Corp.'s Richard Farmer and Carl Lindner of Chiquita Brands. According to veteran pollster Bob Dykes, CEO of Triad Research, Gore lost Ohio in 2000 largely because he was killed in rural and small-town Ohio, especially in the south, over the issue of gun control.

But Democrats hold most of the central city mayoralities in the state, including even Cincinnati, and Republican Gov. Bob Taft has sunk to less than 45 percent approval, thus leaving Bush without reliable local coattails. Austin believes that Bush's questionable service in the National Guard will hurt him in highly patriotic Ohio. Growing concerns about loss of life and expenditures of money in Iraq may also tarnish the image of the "war president."

Bush's effort to inject gay marriage as a wedge issue has left state Republican officials divided over the wisdom of a constitutional amendment, even though the governor recently signed legislation banning gay marriages. Dykes thinks that Democrats can minimize backlash on the issue if they adopt a centrist position that shows respect for people's religious convictions but argues for policies that promote "fairness and encouraging gay citizens to live stable, productive lives." The same-sex marriage issue is "obviously going to give the right wing something to get excited about, but the question is, Is he overplaying his hand and turning off suburban moderate Republicans?" asked Rhoads. "They may feel, 'This is too much. You're really going after these people. I know gay people at work and church. This seems mean-spirited.'"

Although Republicans will be fighting to hold on to their strongholds in suburbs of some cities (not Cleveland, where many suburbs are also Democratic bastions), Rhoads thinks that Democrats can "peel away" some moderate Republicans. "A lot of them are getting sick and tired of GOP mandates on their public schools without money to help them," Rhoads argued.

Could Democrats ride their issues and organization to victory in Ohio this fall? "Unequivocally, yes," said Dykes. It will depend on whether Democrats can make the economy, healthcare and retirement security issues central while successfully focusing on Bush's failures, rather than letting Republicans make the race revolve around Kerry's record. And even then, the battle will probably be pitched right up until the polls close on Election Day.

The issue was clear for Michael Davis, a 39-year-old construction laborer with seven children who was leaving the union hall, where he had paid his dues to maintain membership and a chance for work on a union project. He has been out of work for more than a year and no longer receives unemployment compensation, since Bush opposed renewing the federal extension of benefits. He believes strongly in being politically active, but he had not yet focused on the primary. When asked how he might vote, he stumbled as he tried to remember Kerry's name. But he had no confusion about what he wanted to accomplish: "I just don't want Bush in there."

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