Monday, May 12, 2008
Kerry breaks into the open field, with Edwards still in pursuit -- while the Dean meteor continues to burn out.
Feb 4, 2004 | After a month of surprise, confusion and tumult, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is, suddenly, much more clear: The nomination is John Kerry's to lose.
John Edwards won in South Carolina Tuesday, and he made a strong showing in an Oklahoma race that was too close to call even after all the votes were in. But Kerry, the liberal senator from Massachusetts, took the bellwether state of Missouri by a commanding margin over Edwards. In addition, he won in Delaware, North Dakota, New Mexico, Arizona, placed a strong second in South Carolina and was running strong in Oklahoma.
Howard Dean, considered a sure winner by some pundits just a month ago, was scarcely a factor in the seven primary elections Tuesday. He predicted that his "turning point" would come Saturday in the Washington state caucuses, but even with a win there, it is difficult to imagine a run of future victories that could give him the nomination. Sen. Joe Lieberman and retired Gen. Wesley Clark posted disappointing numbers in the seven-state primary. Lieberman quit the race Tuesday night, and even if Clark holds on to his narrow lead in Oklahoma, he may not be long for the game.
Edwards staffers tried to make the best of their one victory, casting the race from here on out as a two-man contest. But Kerry, already in Seattle, delivered a front-runner's speech aimed at the Republican incumbent.
"George Bush, who speaks of strength, has made America weaker," he told cheering supporters. "Weaker economically, weaker in education, weaker in health care. And the truth is that George Bush has made America weaker by overextending the armed forces of the United states, overstraining our reserves, driving away our allies, and running the most arrogant, reckless, inept and ideological foreign policy in the modern history of our country.
"Our opponents say that they want to run on national security. Well, we will not run from that debate -- I welcome it. I will remind them happily that some of us know something about aircraft carriers for real."
But in a different forum, Kerry saved a shot for Edwards. In an interview with the Associated Press, he said he was "stunned" by his large wins in Delaware, Missouri and Arizona; he called the night a big success despite finishing second to John Edwards in South Carolina. "I compliment John Edwards but I think you have to run a national campaign, and I think that's the strength we have shown tonight," Kerry said. "You don't cherry-pick the presidency."
Pundits agreed he was by far the day's big winner.
Democratic strategist Doug Schoen was typical. If Kerry "wins in five states," Schoen told the New York Times, "it's almost over; six, almost certainly over; seven, it's over."
By Schoen's count, it's almost over.
For months, campaign strategists had looked forward to Feb. 3 as the first make-or-break date of the primary season. Because Iowa and New Hampshire are the first races in the campaign, they get a lot of attention, but they're small and not especially representative of the nation as a whole; the premium in those races is on door-to-door, face-to-face politics.
Clark all but said that the race didn't even start until Feb. 3; Lieberman, too, skipped Iowa. Clearly, they were wrong. Dean's strategy, as the underdog who became front-runner, was to dominate those first two contests so completely that he overwhelmed the opposition, leaving Feb. 3 voters no practical choice but himself. But he fared poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, and his campaign imploded.
On Tuesday, there were races in the East, the South, the Midwest and the Southwest, a sample much closer to a cross section of the nation. Unable to be seven places at once, the candidates were forced to rely much more heavily on advertising and ground organizations -- a race similar to a national, general election campaign. And there was only one way to interpret the results: After an intense affair with Dean and an intriguing flirtation with Clark, Democrats are getting ready to tie the knot with Kerry.
It's a pragmatic choice, not one resulting from a drunken, poetic infatuation. His initials are JFK, but few have the illusion that he's a Kennedy-esque candidate. He's not especially telegenic. His can be less than inspiring on the stump. He's a millionaire in populist's clothing. He undoubtedly cast some votes as a veteran senator that will come back to haunt him. And yet, the marketplace of Democratic voters seems to be settling on him as the candidate who has the best package of attributes -- and who is, therefore, most able to defeat Bush in November.
In simplest terms, he's a conventional baby-boom liberal. Among all the Democratic candidates who have served in Congress, his ratings with the liberal Americans for Democratic Action are the highest -- 92 out of a possible 100. Even so, he has cast votes with President Bush on key issues, such as the authorization to invade Iraq -- votes that could inoculate him with some centrists and disenchanted Republicans. He has an appealing personal story line. He served with distinction in Vietnam, and has the backing of many veterans; and yet as one of the leaders of Vietnam Veterans Against the War, he earned credentials as an antiwar, counterculture hero.
He is, arguably, the candidate who can credibly reach to the left and the right for votes and credibly challenge Bush on national security issues -- assuming he's the Democrats' nominee.
A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll this week seems to bear that out. In a head-to-head match-up, Kerry defeats Bush 53 percent to 46 percent. Edwards edged Bush, too, but only by 1 percentage point -- a statistical dead heat.
That's how the dynamic seemed to play out Tuesday in Missouri, too. With attention so focused on South Carolina, the Show Me state has been almost an afterthought. But with an economy ravaged by recession and job losses, it is of critical importance to Democrats, and most analysts say it will be one of about 15 states where the presidential race will be won or lost in November. (The others include such delegate-rich states as Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan, along with smaller prizes like Minnesota, Oregon, Nevada, New Hampshire and Arizona.) Kerry dominated the contest Tuesday, with over 50 percent of the vote in early returns, compared to roughly 20 percent for Edwards.
Make no mistake -- the race is not over. The weeks ahead may demonstrate again the deep cultural and political disagreements that define the nation, and the Democratic Party. It appears, for now, that Edwards and perhaps Dean will be able to exploit that. Edwards' best hope is to peel off the South; Dean, fighting a guerrilla action, might hope to lock up the Left Coast with wins in Washington on Saturday and in California on March 2. (Oregon doesn't vote until May 18.)
Edwards, the boyish, first-term North Carolina senator, was in Columbia, S.C., last night, but with the Tennesee primary scheduled for next Tuesday, he was set to visit Memphis Wednesday morning and in Norfolk, Va., that afternoon.
Get Salon in your mailbox!