So are you saying that you think al-Qaida may in fact be growing stronger?

I would say that it's become different. They were probably a lot better off when they could use the state [of Afghanistan] as their corporate headquarters. It's probably harder to plan a massive attack while on the run as they are now -- especially in terms of the difficulty that creates for their communications. Their operating environment has certainly changed, but they're adapting, and I think these attacks show the strength of a more decentralized approach. It's not Sept. 11, but these attacks are still significant, still a big deal.

If this is an organized effort by al-Qaida, what is its broader strategy? Why go after Turkey, aside from its obvious pro-Western leanings?

It's not just Turkey's pro-Western leanings, but the fact that an Islamic party was elected in a democratic government. While some Islamic scholars have argued convincingly that the best way to implement sharia [the system of Islam-inspired law that covers not only religious rituals but day-to-day life] is through a democratic regime, the radical revivalists reject democracy outright. So in a way Turkey is more of an affront, not just because of its links with the U.S. and the West, and its desire to join Europe, but because of the fact that it's a democracy where an Islamic party has come to power.

Does that make Turkey a more important target to al-Qaida than Saudi Arabia or Pakistan?

Perhaps. It's hard to say, but al-Qaida does appear to have more support in Pakistan [and its regime], for example ... In terms of attacking inside Turkey, think of the murder of Anwar Sadat: It was inspired by the notion that the first goal has to be to cleanse the Islamic world of secular leaders. I think Turkey is perceived [by militant Islamists] as secular in general, but even worse, an Islamic party there is participating in a democratic regime.

Meanwhile, in Turkey the level of antipathy toward the U.S. went way up in the wake of the Iraq war, which would seem to work to the advantage of terrorists planning attacks.

What does al-Qaida hope to achieve with these bombings?

Al-Qaida's goal is to take down the current governments and establish Islamist regimes, to reestablish the Caliphate [a land or country under Islamic rule] throughout the region and [perhaps] throughout the entire world. Because of this they have it in for secular Islamic rule and secular Muslims as much as anything else. What they would call purifying the Islamic world is at least as important an objective to them, I think, as punishing the West.

To what degree is this recent wave of al-Qaida attacks connected to the insurgency against the U.S. occupation in Iraq? Is it a coordinated effort?

I think there is no way to answer that at this point. The one thing that we do know is that the war in Iraq has dramatically increased antipathy toward the U.S. That is definitely assisting the al-Qaida movement. It has also turned Iraqi citizens increasingly against the U.S., so the war plays a big role in that regard, whether or not there is evidence that these groups are coordinating their attacks with those against U.S. soldiers in Iraq. I'm not clear at all that there are any organizational links.

The Bush administration has characterized the anti-U.S. insurgency in Iraq as a last act of "desperation," and we heard the same thing echoed by the Saudis about the latest terrorist attack in Riyadh. Do you think this is an accurate assessment? Or are we perhaps witnessing the contrary -- a rising wave of a new regional effort by al-Qaida?

I'm not sure we have enough evidence to make either claim, but I don't know why anyone would draw the conclusion that al-Qaida is in a "desperate" stage now. It seems equally likely to me that they are recovering and showing new strength.

With so many resources focused on Iraq, is the U.S. effectively battling the terror threat elsewhere?

Definitely not. I think we've focused exclusively on the military aspects of the war on terrorism, and we've forgotten that terrorism is psychological warfare more than anything else. I believe we're not paying nearly enough attention to the psychological aspects of this war.

What should the U.S. be doing in that regard?

I think we must realize that we are competing with Saudi charities for hearts and minds. We have to realize that the war is indeed about ideas, and that our enemies are spreading their ideas through social welfare activities. We should learn from them, and compete with them in this regard. Iraq is absolutely pouring fuel on the fire.

Has the U.S. gained the necessary cooperation from foreign governments in the battle against terrorists, especially in the Mideast region?

My guess is that we're trying very hard to get it. It's essential, and I think we're going to see more and more cooperation. It does seem that the Saudis started to take this threat a lot more seriously after the attacks on their own soil. They began to look at changing the curriculum in their religious schools, for example.

How do these types of attacks affect popular sympathy for al-Qaida's alleged cause? Is attacking so-called soft targets and killing a lot of Arabs and Muslims in the process a strategic error on its part?

I know a lot of people have been arguing that it is. I think it's too soon for us to judge. Look, we've seen Islamist groups killing Muslims before -- it's nothing new. It's conceivable that in the bigger picture it doesn't get in their way.

And I think this goes back to the same essential point: I think we shouldn't worry exclusively about people who are prepared to pick up a gun. We should be equally worried about people who are going to open their doors and provide logistical support -- terrorists do require support in the broader population. This was highlighted by the CIA report leaked to the Philadelphia Inquirer last week about the change in attitude toward the U.S. occupation in Iraq.

So you seem to be saying that without state protection in Afghanistan or elsewhere, this wider support network -- perhaps having grown bigger, and more sympathetic since the U.S. invasion of Iraq -- is a crucial battleground now.

That's absolutely right, and to date, I think it's where we are failing the fight.

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