While New York's actions might seem paltry compared with the scope of the global problem, they could have a real impact. New York state, if it were its own nation, would boast the world's eighth largest economy, spending $38 billion on energy alone. New England, combined with New York and New Jersey, as a nation, would be the world's eighth largest greenhouse gas emitter.
Pataki's reasons for supporting global warming action diverge 180 degrees from Bush's view: "The governor's philosophy on the environment is that you can't have a strong economy without a protected environment, and vice versa," said Crotty. New York state's economic health is "based on the health of our natural resources. In Long Island Sound alone we have a $5 billion dollar economy based on everything from tourism to commercial and recreational fisheries, not to mention the Adirondack and Catskill forest preserves, an area twice the size of Yosemite. For us, climate change poses a serious threat to both the environment and the economy."
A 2000 federal report estimated that the state's temperatures may rise an average 1.7 to 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the 2020s due to human-caused global warming, resulting in higher sea levels, coastal flooding and increased likelihood of severe weather events such as drought and hurricanes. "The Federal Emergency Management Agency modeled the number of Level 5 hurricanes hitting New York City at high tide and doing billions in damage," said Jeff Jones, communications director for Environmental Advocates of New York. What's disturbing, Jones said, is that "while FEMA used to model such an event as a hundred-year storm, they now model it as a 20-year storm." With New York temperatures projected to rise 6 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2080, such events could become even more frequent.
Crotty notes another divergence from Bush's position. While the president claims that adherence to Kyoto CO2 cuts and a switch to alternative energy will bankrupt the nation, Pataki sees a commitment to wind, solar, hydrogen and biomass as a boon. "We've proven that reducing greenhouse gases can be done without harming the economy," she said. "In fact, we see an economic advantage to encouraging technological innovations here in New York."
Pataki may have a pragmatic reason for his stance. Global warming is becoming a hot political issue in New York. For example, the governor's surprise announcement of a greenhouse gas taskforce came at the height of the last governor's race, at a black-tie dinner by the New York League of Conservation Voters. "The governor recognized that a League endorsement was important the previous time he ran and would be very important to his reelection," said Jones.
Other governors around the nation are pursuing greenhouse gas emission cuts and making commitments to renewable energy. "Three to five years ago, almost no one was talking about greenhouse gases," says Gupta. "To have state leaders taking action sends a message that regulation at the national level is inevitable. It is part of the overall pressure on Congress to act."
In New Jersey, it was another Republican, then-Gov. Christie Whitman, who took an early stand against climate change. In 1998, she set a state goal of cutting greenhouse gases 3.5 percent below 1990 levels by 2005, and she added a small charge to consumer utility bills to raise $358 million for energy efficiency and renewable energy programs. Later, when she was Bush's EPA director, it was Whitman's tough stance on global warming that caused her first rift with the administration and helped pave the way for her departure this year.
New Jersey, now in Democratic hands, is out front in curbing greenhouse gas pollution, putting stringent CO2 emission limits on the state's biggest utility. In June, Gov. James McGreevey pledged that 20 percent of the state's energy will come from clean power by 2020, a tall order in a state with little hydropower.
Maine, under Democratic Gov. John Baldacci, has just committed to reducing carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels by 2010, to 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, and by 75 to 80 percent over the long term, in line with a proposal by the New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers. "At a time when the federal government has deleted climate change information from EPA reports, Maine is not risking our future -- we're taking action," said Sue Jones of the Natural Resources Council of Maine.
Vermont has committed to reducing the state's greenhouse gas emissions by more than 25 percent over the next decade. And Massachusetts was the first state to mandate CO2 cuts at power plants, targeting its six dirtiest fossil fuel plants.
Outside the Northeast, the Republican stronghold of Nevada plans to get 15 percent of its energy from renewables by 2013, with a report by the Energy Foundation estimating that alternative energy will increase the state gross product by $665 million and create up to 5,000 jobs.
According to WorldWatch Institute, California Gov. Gray Davis has pegged the net benefits of renewable energy over a five-year period at $11 billion in economic development benefits for his state due to new job creation and in-state investments.
Remarkably, while he was serving as the Texas governor, George W. Bush signed a bill mandating that 3 to 4 percent of the state's electricity come from renewable resources, creating a boon for Texas wind power. By the end of 2002, 15 states had enacted legislation requiring utilities to increase their use of renewable energy, reports the Washington Post. Not unexpectedly, the greatest resistance to alternative energy is in Midwestern states with the most fossil fuel-burning power plants, and in the Southeast, where coal mining remains an economic force.
In Europe, successful renewable energy initiatives and greenhouse gas caps are causing Bush's bogeyman of economic ruin to vanish in a puff of prosperous reality.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, seen by many in Britain as "Bush's poodle," has broken with America over global warming, comparing the climate change threat to that of terrorism. Just days before the Iraq war, Blair announced plans to cut U.K. greenhouse gas emissions 60 percent by 2050 -- a rate that, if achieved planet-wide, could probably stabilize global warming, U.N. scientists say. "There will be no genuine security if the planet is ravaged by climate change," Blair said. He hopes to get the entire European Union to back his plan. He has also committed to getting 20 percent of British energy from renewables by 2020, according to the U.K. Guardian.
While critics call Blair's initiative under-funded, just last week the U.K. announced a program to build offshore wind turbines to generate 6,000 megawatts of power. Wind power is now growing in Europe by 40 percent per year, with a capacity of more than 20,000 megawatts installed -- that's three-quarters of the world's total wind power output, enough to serve more than 10 million European homes.
In the U.S., wind energy is at about one-fifth of Europe's capacity, according to the WorldWatch Institute. Germany currently generates 12,000 megawatts annually from wind, Spain has 4,800 megawatts, while the U.S. falls behind at just 4,700 megawatts. Even Denmark installed more wind turbines last year than the U.S.
Japan and Germany lead the world in solar power, producing 100 and 75 megawatts respectively, while the U.S. is a distant third at 32 megawatts. (India may soon catch us, since it already produces 18 megawatts). Japan leads the manufacture of solar cells, monopolizing 43 percent of the market, with Germany controlling 25 percent. Again America is behind, in third place at 24 percent.
Iceland has declared plans to be the first nation to convert fully to a hydrogen economy, is retrofitting Reykjavik's bus fleet with fuel cell engines, and has opened hydrogen fueling stations in the capital.