Some have decided that if they can't change the court, they should change the Constitution. Major religious-right groups like Focus on the Family and the Christian Coalition are putting their energy into a push for a constitutional amendment defining marriage as a heterosexual union. "The next battle will be the federal marriage amendment sponsored by Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave [R-Col.]," says Jim Backlin, director of legislative affairs at the Christian Coalition.

The proposed amendment would do more than just prohibit gay marriage -- it would deny the "legal incidents" of marriage to all other couples. Thus it would negate state laws providing civil unions for gays, since such laws give gay couples whatever benefits the state (though not the federal government) provides to married people.

Backlin believes that there are enough votes in the House to garner the two-thirds needed for constitutional change, and he's also confident backers can get the necessary three-quarters of the states to ratify it. That leaves the Senate, where Republicans have only a slim majority, as a battleground. "It might require one more election," Backlin says.

Of course, there's already a federal law prohibiting same-sex marriage --- the Defense of Marriage Act, signed by President Clinton in 1996. (It's also worth noting that many prominent Democrats, including New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, oppose gay marriage, but support civil unions.) But Stanton worries that the Lawrence precedent means the Defense of Marriage Act won't survive a Supreme Court challenge. "That's why we need to be very clear at the constitutional level about what marriage is," he says.

Amendment backers got a boost on Sunday when Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist endorsed the change. But Wednesday, Bush hedged. Asked about the amendment, Bush said, "I don't know if it's necessary yet. Let's let the lawyers look at the full ramifications of the recent Supreme Court hearing." He nodded to his base, saying, "What I do support is a notion that marriage is between a man and a woman."

Such a stance is a safe one for the president, because even on the right, there's no consensus about the amendment. "Honestly, I don't think we need any congressional legislation," says Schlafly. "The [Defense of Marriage Act] addresses the main points." Adds Aldrich, "I don't think conservatives really believe that a constitutional amendment is the route to take under these circumstances."

That doesn't mean Bush is off the hook. Schlafly and others may not have an initiative they want the president to get behind, but they ardently want him to speak out. "If Massachusetts hands down a same-sex marriage decision, it will be a great disappointment if the president does not come out loud and clear and make a strong statement that we are not going to tolerate this," she says.

But there are other forces in the Republican Party pushing Bush in a different direction. During a debate with Sen. Joe Lieberman during the 2000 campaign, Vice President Dick Cheney, who has a gay daughter, said states should be allowed to legalize civil unions. Libertarians and prominent gay Republicans like Rep. Jim Kolbe of Arizona would also likely be alienated if Bush lets himself be enlisted in an anti-gay crusade.

Stanton isn't interested in the political difficulties that gay issues create for Bush -- he says the president's reputation as a leader is at stake. "What motivates voters is a leader who does not play the zero sum game and just keep quiet. Voters rally around a leader who explains why things matter. Bush did that so wonderfully after 9/11. I think he needs to do the same sort of thing here."

Yet Berlet says Bush is unlikely to satisfy all of the religious right's demands. "What they want and what Bush can give them are two different things," he says. "Look at Reagan. He's a hero to the Christian right, but he never delivered on prayer in school, he never delivered on banning abortion. Bush has a coalition government of libertarians, militarists, the Christian right and business interests. He's got to figure out how he can use rhetoric skillfully to sound like he's responding to the Christian right, while not giving them so much that other parts of his constituency flip out."

How well he finesses it will determine whether he can keep his moderate fans while still turning out his foot soldiers in November 2004.

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