In the early days of his administration, the state had been so flush with cash that it could cut taxes and increase services at the same time. But by the time Davis was up for reelection, the dot-com bust, the foundering national economy and California's disastrous experiment with energy deregulation had changed the state's economic outlook so dramatically that talk of the good times would have rung hollow.

That's if anyone would have listened to Davis talk in the first place. While former California Gov. Pete Wilson drew fire for his divisive politics on issues like affirmative action and immigration, Gray Davis has been a unifying force in California: Both Republicans and Democrats find him incredibly distasteful. A poll issued this week by the Public Policy Institute of California showed that 75 percent of likely voters disapprove of the way Davis is handling his job.

While Davis' policy views are fairly well aligned with most Democrats', his drab personality and intense focus on fundraising have turned off even those in his own party. Just one example of the disdain and disrespect Davis gets from fellow Democrats: A few days after the November election, one Democratic state senator repeatedly referred to Davis as an "asshole" in a conversation with fellow passengers on a Southwest Airlines flight to Sacramento.

For the Republicans, this makes Davis an irresistible target of opportunity. "Gray Davis has pretty much managed to annoy just about everybody outside his party and a lot of people inside his party -- not just because of his policies, but because of his personality," said Gilliard. "That's one of the reasons I think this is going to be successful. He doesn't have a reservoir of support in his own party. If we were in Massachusetts trying to recall a Kennedy or in New York trying to recall Hillary Clinton, it would never work."

Whether it works in California will depend in large part on what the Democrats do about it. No one -- no one -- is racing to Davis' defense just yet. While prominent Democrats have begun to speak out against the recall, they haven't spoken out in favor of Davis. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, for example, distributed an Op-Ed piece last month urging voters not to sign recall petitions. She warned that a recall would be an expensive distraction and that it could lead to the election of a fringe candidate. She said not a word about Gray Davis and offered not a single reason why he should be governor.

Likewise, the labor groups that are organizing to fight the recall are focused exclusively on the losses their members could suffer if the Republicans take Sacramento -- and not the gains they could get if they keep Gray Davis in office.

"We're not focused on Davis at all at this point," said Spalding of the California Labor Federation. "We know he's not popular. All the polls tell us he's not popular."

For Davis to win, his supporters in labor and elsewhere will have to do what Davis has done all along -- convince voters that, as bad as he may be, he's better than the alternative. The key to that, of course, is keeping better alternatives out of the race. Davis managed to keep Richard Riordan out of the general election in 2002. Now he must find a way to keep other Democrats from entering the recall race in 2003. If a popular Democrat were to run -- say, Feinstein -- even Democratic voters would likely vote to recall Davis so that they could replace him with a more savory Democratic candidate.

So far, Davis and the labor groups seem to be succeeding. Representatives of the California Labor Federation met last weekend with Davis and all of the Democrats currently holding statewide elected office. Over the course of the next several days, each of those Democrats announced that he would not seek election in the recall drive. If those commitments hold -- and if Feinstein stays out of the race -- Davis may survive, if only because Darrell Issa would be so unpalatable for so many Californians.

But there are still wild cards to be played. The Republicans could run a more moderate candidate -- someone like Richard Riordan, or perhaps Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has said he wants to be governor of California but just isn't sure yet when. And then there's the involvement of the White House. So far, Gilliard says the White House has had no involvement in the recall campaign. That could change soon, and maybe it already has.

Ben Ginsberg, a GOP lawyer instrumental in the Bush vs. Gore litigation, is representing Issa against allegations that his funding of the recall campaign violates federal campaign finance laws. And the Los Angeles Weekly reported this week that Karl Rove has been talking with Republican California state Sen. Jim Brulte about recall-related strategy. (Brulte's office flatly denied the charge Thursday, saying that Brulte had specifically avoided talking with the White House about the recall to avoid such allegations.)

The biggest mystery out there, though, may be why anyone really would want to serve the remainder of Davis' term in the first place. California's budget picture is dire, and whoever is governor will have impossible choices to make. The state's budget deficit stands today at just over $10 billion. If revenue and spending continue as they are, the deficit will exceed $38 billion by this time next year.

To get the state back into the black, Davis -- or whoever is governor -- will have to cut services or raise taxes or both. Right now, the Republicans can jam Davis with those choices -- and blame him for getting the state in this predicament in the first place. It may not be fair -- if Davis is responsible for California's economic downturn, so too is George W. Bush -- but it still will give the White House a chance to demonize the Democratic governor if Bush decides to make a serious play for California in 2004. If Davis is gone, the Republicans may have to take some responsibility for the economic troubles California now faces.

"It's hard to see how the Republicans in the end really come out ahead in this," said professor of government Jack Pitney. "If they fall short, then Gray Davis can claim some measure of vindication. If they succeed in recalling him and a Democrat is elected, then they substitute one Democrat for another who is less hated by the electorate, and that makes it harder for them to raise money. And if they win and get a Republican to replace Davis, what do they get then? A Republican governor who has to raise taxes or cut services. Right now, they've got the perfect demon in Gray Davis. Why change that?"

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