June 10: On a trip to the Middle East in June 2002, Rumsfeld abandoned the allegation that the Iraqis were merely plotting to develop WMD. "They have them," Rumsfeld declared in Kuwait, "and they continue to develop them, and they have weaponized chemical weapons."

Rumsfeld went on to argue that the Iraqis had "an active program to develop nuclear weapons. It's also clear that they are actively developing biological weapons. I don't know what other kinds of weapons would fall under the rubric of weapons of mass destruction, but if there are more, I suspect they're working on them, as well." Though by then the administration had declared "regime change" to be its goal for Iraq, Rumsfeld wouldn't specifically comment on administration plans. "What might take place prospectively is not ... for me to be talking about," he said.

Behind the scenes, of course, plans for the war were underway. In April, at a Central Intelligence Agency training base in Virginia, Iraqi and Kurdish opposition forces were told by government officials that the decision had been made to topple Saddam's regime. On June 19, the head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Tommy Franks, briefed Bush on the war plans to date.

Nonetheless, Bush said very little about Iraq.

June 24: Bush delivered a major address about the Middle East, but he focused almost entirely on issues involving Israel and the citizens of the West Bank and Gaza. His only reference to Iraq came when he stated that "every nation actually committed to peace" must "oppose regimes that promote terror, like Iraq," as well as "block the shipment of Iranian supplies" to terrorist groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah.

During that era, it seemed to be up to Rumsfeld to lay out the case for attacking Iraq, which he eagerly did.

July 30: Rumsfeld added a frightening new type of WMD to the list of Iraq's arsenal. "They have chemical weapons and biological weapons," he said, "and they have an appetite for nuclear weapons and have been working on them for a good many years, and there's an awful lot we don't know about their programs."

Throughout the summer, Democratic officials, as well as some Republicans, had been asking myriad questions about the administration's plans; they were met with relative silence, since the official line was that no decisions had yet been made. But in August, war opponents got a boost when high-profile members of Bush's father's administration began denigrating the administration's case for war.

August 15: Gen. Brent Scowcroft, the elder Bush's national security advisor, channeled Cassandra in a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed, warning that a war against Iraq would lead to catastrophe. "Saddam would be likely to conclude he had nothing left to lose, leading him to unleash whatever weapons of mass destruction he possesses," Scowcroft wrote, among other predictions. Asked about the various criticisms on Aug. 16, while at his Crawford, Texas, ranch, the president said that he was listening carefully to what was being said. "There should be no doubt in anybody's mind," Bush said. But, he said, "America needs to know, I'll be making up my mind based upon the latest intelligence, and how best to protect our own country plus our friends and allies."

And the fact was, he said, Saddam "desires weapons of mass destruction." Desires -- not possesses. Even though Rumsfeld had reiterated a month earlier that Saddam had those weapons, Bush was still being cautious in his diction.

Was this caution because "the latest intelligence" didn't state that Saddam actually possessed WMD? Or that it hadn't gotten from Rumsfeld's desk to the White House yet? Or because it was too early to begin the process of having the president lay out his case? It wasn't clear, though it was around that time that White House chief of staff Andrew Card told the New York Times that the White House hadn't really begun rallying the country to the cause of war against Iraq because "from a marketing point of view, you don't introduce new products in August." This campaign would happen, the administration made clear. It was still up in the air whether the president would seek the approval of either the Congress or the United Nations, but as spokesman Ari Fleischer said at the time, "the president knows that in a democracy it's vital to have the support of the public if he reaches any point where he makes decisions about military action."

August 26: In the first major speech from a White House official to declare that Iraq had WMD, Cheney spoke to a friendly crowd at the 103rd national convention of the Veterans of Foreign Wars. The convention, nicely enough, was being held in Nashville, Tenn., a state that Bush and Cheney had won even though it was Al Gore's home state. Cheney probably couldn't have dreamt up a more receptive and appropriate audience for the speech he was about to deliver at the Gaylord Opryland Hotel, where he would declare unequivocally, "Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction."

These were biological and chemical in nature, but they weren't even the greatest threat, Cheney said. "Many of us are convinced that Saddam Hussein will acquire nuclear weapons fairly soon," he warned. "Just how soon, we cannot really gauge. Intelligence is an uncertain business, even in the best of circumstances." And though he didn't say it, Cheney could have had only so much confidence in the intelligence agencies. Before the Gulf War, intelligence officers told him that Saddam was anywhere from five to 10 years away from having a nuclear weapon. After the war, however, Cheney was told that Saddam might have been within a year of getting a nuke.

With that speech came a clear shift in rhetoric, though it varied depending on the audience.

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