Meanwhile, the Times' management, anxious to begin its long climb out of an unprecedented hole, is still trying to figure out if the newspaper has hit bottom or if there's more to come. For instance, newsroom rumors were rampant this week that the Wall Street Journal was set to publish yet another damaging story about the Times and raise new questions about newsroom practices under Raines. The central question is whether Raines can survive another misstep.

The turn of events for Raines, considered among the most gifted, and polarizing, editors of his generation, is stunning. "This is a man who was just saluted for having led the Times' coverage of 9/11, which won seven Pulitzer Prize awards, and then it all fell apart," notes one Times source. "It's almost Shakespearean. Not that I'm saying he'll end up a tragic figure, but he's closer than anybody thought one month ago, when resignation was unthinkable. But if an idea gets repeated enough times, before you know it, it becomes fact."

Indeed, one year ago Raines -- toasted as editor of the year by industry trade magazine Editor & Publisher -- was the subject of a 17,000-word profile in the New Yorker, which came complete with an appropriately weighty, statesman-like headline: "The Howell Doctrine."

Now, as wave after wave of criticism laps up against the Old Gray Lady, it appears Raines may be just trying to hang on to his job. If he were forced out, "It would be the most devastating thing to ever happen in his life," says Susan Tifft, a former Times reporter and coauthor of "The Trust: The Private and Powerful Family Behind the New York Times." "He's spent his entire professional life grooming himself, and preparing himself, and really living for this moment when he'd be able to lead the Times. He feels a real sense of mission about it."

"If that moment came and Arthur Sulzberger asked him to go, he'd consider it his last gift to the paper," says Tifft. "That's how he sees the Times."

Such a dramatic gesture would be unprecedented at the Times. According to historian Tifft, no top editor of the newspaper has ever resigned or been forced out under a cloud of controversy. (In the '80s, legendary editor Abe Rosenthal, whose stubbornness bordered on delusion, was gradually pushed out, but not for any specific event under his tenure.) Instead, the succession between editors at the family-controlled Times is often an ornately choreographed event with personnel moves planned out months, even years, in advance to assure a smooth transition of power at the only American newspaper that wields governmental-like power in its ability, even in the age of cable and the Internet, to dictate a national news agenda.

"Just because it hasn't happened in the past doesn't mean it wouldn't happen in the future," says Tifft. "The publisher strives always to do what's in the best interest of the New York Times. That's the star they steer by, even if that means dismissing friends he has installed. If in Arthur Sulzberger's judgment retaining Howell is damaging the Times, I don't think he'd hesitate to do it."

The theory is that by jettisoning Raines, the Times could stop the bleeding and begin to make its recovery. "If something unsettling happened that made the newsroom lose confidence in its editor, the cleanest and surest way to deal with the problem is to get rid of the editor," says Geneva Overholser, a former Times editorial page writer and currently a journalism professor at the University of Missouri. "But Arthur might view this differently. He'd say, I'm leading an institution with such tradition and confidence in its singularity, and widely viewed as the single strongest journalist entity in the country. Do I take such a drastic step as to fire the executive editor?"

Another question seems equally pressing: Who would replace Raines in the top spot? "Put yourself in Arthur Sulzberger's shoes," says Tifft. "You need a new executive editor who has the confidence of the staff, somebody who's ready to shoot down the pole into the fire truck. You have an upcoming election to cover, and you're trying to remake the arts and culture sections. You don't fire Howell Raines and then try to decide who's going to be executive editor." Trying to figure out the next move "is like staring at a chess board," says Tifft, who doubts the publisher will make a change at the top spot.

The newspaper's No. 2 executive, managing editor Gerald Boyd, remains an unlikely candidate since he's so closely tied to Raines, and like his boss has been badly damaged by the Blair affair. Complicating matters, though, is that Boyd is the paper's first black managing editor; that carries a lot of weight with Sulzberger, who once called diversity in the newsroom "the single most important issue" the Times faced.

"Getting rid of Gerald Boyd, that has larger repercussions," notes Tifft.

Some Times staffers point to Bill Keller as a possible candidate to replace Raines. Currently a columnist on the Op-Ed page, Keller served as managing editor for Raines' predecessor and was considered for the top spot. But by tapping him, Sulzberger would be admitting not one, but two mistakes: that Raines was the wrong person for the job, and that Sulzberger was wrong to pass over Keller in 2001.

The fact is, most of the newsroom was behind Raines' appointment two years ago. "The consensus was with Howell, not Bill Keller," says one former Times editor. "So what turned everything around? I don't get it. How the hell, in one and a half years, with news busting out all over, did the newsroom consensus turn against Howell? What the hell did he do?"

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