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Demos are hoping that a collapsing economy will doom Bush like it did his father. But his dad didn't have Osama bin Laden in his corner -- or Karl Rove.
May 8, 2003 | Opponents of President Bush are hoping that he suffers the same political fate his father did in 1992 by winning a war with Iraq only to lose reelection at home because of a soft economy. But with the shooting in the latest Iraq war mostly over and the 2004 campaign well underway, influential Democratic insiders are warning that may be wishful thinking. Young Bush, they say, has two things his father did not: the ongoing war on terrorism and bare-knuckled political advisor Karl Rove.
Rove plays politics with national security -- and public insecurity -- in ways that Bush Sr.'s White House never dreamed of. Since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, the administration has boldly, and at times brazenly, exploited the aftermath for political gain. Before the Republicans' triumphant 2002 midterm election victories, the White House used terror-related issues and the specter of war with Iraq to keep timid Democrats off balance and the staggering economy off of Page 1. And it appears certain that Rove will employ a similar script in the 18 months before the next election.
"The Democratic Party keeps putting out talking points that are all about 1992 [comparisons], but I say '92 is not a playbook we can pull out," says Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign. "Except for the Bush DNA and the same last name, that's where the similarities end. George Bush is beatable -- he's a lousy educator and a lousy economist -- but he's added a very important element to his résumé since 9/11, commander in chief. Democrats must have a very good answer to how they will protect American citizens. It's national security, stupid."
"This is not going to be a repeat of 1992, this White House is too smart for that," agrees James Zogby, a senior advisor to the Gore campaign and now president of the Arab American Institute. "They're not going to let the war culture fade. Bush is a 48 percent president acting like an 80 percent one and the difference is 9/11. He knows that and he's not going to let go of it. The war on terrorism can be a never-ending war, but without the fatigue."
That perpetual-war approach contrasts sharply with Gulf War I, which came to an abrupt end and was not tied to any larger crusade. That allowed Bush Sr. to claim victory in the short term, but allowed Americans to turn their attention back to domestic issues, such as the weak economy and a president who was seen as weak on economic issues.
Today, in Rove's the hands, the permanent war on terrorism is like a political gold mine. "Everything, including a war, is a potential campaign event for Karl," says James Moore, coauthor with Wayne Slater of "Bush's Brain: How Karl Rove Made George W. Bush Presidential." "He has great a skill at keeping messages simple and accessible. And the message today is the war and economy are wrapped up in security, that there's unfinished business with the war on terrorism and why would you change commander in chief in the middle of war? It's a helluva salable message."
With little-known presidential Democratic candidates currently trailing Bush badly in the polls, particularly over the issue of national security, Rove and the increasingly brash White House are openly using the might of the U.S. military to make sure this president does not suffer the same fate as his father, who chronically battled his own wimp factor.
"Rove's doing things a bit more boldly than he's done in the past because he's able to get away with them," says Moore, citing Bush's high-profile visit to an aircraft carrier last week. "The president was essentially a draft-dodger during the Vietnam War -- he disappeared for his last year of his [National Guard] flight service -- yet he's portrayed in a flight suit as some kind of war hero. But Democrats and the national media never address the hypocrisy," says Moore. "Both Karl Rove and the White House say, 'Why stop?' It won't come back to haunt them because the environment changed after 9/11."
The contrast in how Bush handles military celebrations before and after 9/11 is telling. Back in April 2001, Bush opted to stay out of the spotlight during the emotional homecoming for 24 crew members of a U.S. surveillance plane who were forced to land on China's Hainan Island after a mid-air collision that left one Chinese pilot dead. Following 11 tense days of negotiation, the administration won the crew's freedom.
When the appreciative servicemen and women touched down at Whidbey Island Naval Air Station 50 miles north of Seattle, they climbed onto a podium and shook hands with local dignitaries and politicians, while throngs welcomed them home. Bush, however, was not among them. Bush insisted he did not want to insert himself into the private moment of a family reunion, and that he wanted to avoid the "hoopla."
Fast-forward 25 months and it appears Bush's aversion to hoopla -- especially military hoopla -- has been cured, undoubtedly with the help of Rove. Last week, he staged perhaps the most elaborate photo-op in history aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, which was homeward bound from the Persian Gulf. Of course, Bush didn't just arrive on the ship; he donned a full flight suit and flew in an S-3B Viking jet that was snared by the Lincoln's flight deck restraining wire. The event generated extraordinarily rich, symbolic images for the White House.
Only after the carefully staged television event was over did it become clear the that the White House misled reporters when it insisted Bush had to fly in a jet to the Lincoln, rather than in a traditional and less dramatic helicopter, because the ship was hundreds of miles offshore; in fact, the Lincoln was less than 40 miles from San Diego when Bush touched down. The Navy slowed the ship's approach to port in order to give Bush enough time to arrive on the decks before the Lincoln docked. Then the crew maneuvered the gigantic ship in order to give the White House the Pacific Ocean as a backdrop, not the quickly approaching San Diego coastline.
Critics suggest it was simply the latest in a long list of crass attempts by the White House to play politics with national security issues related to either 9/11 or the war with Iraq. For instance, the administration announced the creation of the Department of Homeland Security on June 6, 2002, in order to drown out the news of FBI agent Colleen Rowley's testimony before Congress that same day. She detailed the memo she wrote to superiors that might have helped prevent the 9/11 attacks, had the FBI under Bush's watch not ignored the memo.
