Waiting for the bombs

On the streets of Baghdad, Iraqis fear that neither Osama bin Laden nor the pope will be able to help them now.

Feb 13, 2003 | The children's choir at Baghdad's St. Joseph's Church soars in beseeching tones toward the heavens. "Our people are hurting, blood and tears flow from us," the children sing, "let the whole world pray with us for peace." The papal envoy, Cardinal Etchegaray, who is in Iraq in a last-ditch effort to stop the war, looks on from the front of the church. In his sermon, he has just questioned his own ability to help avert a war. "Everybody wants peace, but who still believes it is possible? How many want it with all their strength?"

While the pope was sending a seemingly hopeless message of peace, the Iraqis also received a more strident message of support. Osama bin Laden, or at least someone purporting to be him, exhorted the Iraqi people on the Al-Jazeera Arab satellite television network to stand united against the infidel. "This crusader war concerns all Muslims, whether the socialist party or Saddam remain in power or not," he said.

Rather than welcoming bin Laden's support, the regime saw in it a dangerous appeal over their heads to the people -- although in this country where satellite and cable television are nonexistent, few heard the tape firsthand or at all. "This is not for the benefit of the Iraqi people," Muthaffer Adhami, a member of parliament, rushed to say. "This is not supporting the Iraqis."

Short of divine intervention, a war seems inevitable to most in Baghdad, whatever their religion. The population has developed a certain bravura about the situation. "We have seen this all before, we have been living under sanctions and under threat for 12 years now," is a standard response. At the same time most are preparing for a war by stocking up on basic necessities. The government has handed out food rations for the next three months, and increased sales of kerosene for lamps and heaters has driven prices up. Others are trying to leave the country, or at least trying to get out of the center of Baghdad, where the heaviest bombardments are expected if war breaks out.

The country is now holding its breath waiting for the report that U.N. weapons inspectors Hans Blix and Mohammed ElBaradei will deliver to the U.N. Security Council on Feb. 14. "That day is going to decide the future of our country," says Nabila Isho at the cardinal's mass in St. Joseph's Church. She is not very hopeful the cardinal can help avoid war. "Maybe together with other people who are opposed he can make a stand. But the Americans are very determined."

The looming war even seeped into the Muslim feast of Eid al-Adha, which started on Tuesday. In one mosque in Baghdad -- like all mosques here, it is controlled by the government -- the sheik asked God in his sermon after the dawn prayers to lead the Muslims to victory and "defend his people against the unbelievers." Sheik Qoteibeh Amash at the brand new Al-Nida mosque has become something of a celebrity since he accused U.N. arms inspectors three weeks ago of having violated the sanctity of his mosque. The inspectors at the time said they were just there as tourists and that they were invited by another sheik to tour the yellow brick and blue-tiled building.

Iraq may be a secular state, run nominally along the Baath Party's socialist lines, but religion plays an important part in the lives of many. This has become more important as times have become harder, says Jawad Saad, a professor of political science at Baghdad University. "The government is not encouraging it," says Jawad, but it is clear that it is aware of the power of religion and is trying to use it for its own purposes. While there is no money for many basic services, huge amounts are spent on building new mosques. For example, the giant "Mother of all Battles" mosque in Baghdad commemorating the Gulf War of 1991 (some of its minarets are shaped like Scud missiles) opened last year at an estimated cost of $7.5 million.

This religious revival, combined with the continued hardship suffered by large parts of the population, may prove to be the biggest postwar problem for potential occupiers. "The fundamentalists will be the first to start launching attacks," says Jawad. This fits in with bin Laden's advice to the Iraqis to carry out suicide attacks if American troops enter the country. "Suicide attacks are a real possibility, why not?" says Jawad. "They may even come from secular quarters." Jawad doubts whether economic development after a possible war will mollify the people. "Nobody likes to be occupied. Nationalism is stronger than the wish for economic well-being."

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