The Bush administration has even given religious conservatives unofficial -- but powerful -- positions. John Klink, a former advisor to the Vatican, accompanied an American delegation to a U.N. family-planning conference in Bangkok in December. The State Department says Klink is working in a "voluntary capacity at the behest of the White House," according to a recent article in the New York Times. Last year, Klink was nominated to head the State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration. When it appeared the Democratic Senate would block his confirmation because he opposes contraception and abortion, he withdrew his name. But that didn't mean he left the political stage.
In Thailand, the U.S. delegation provoked outrage among the other participants when it threatened to withdraw its support for a 1994 agreement reached in Cairo that calls for increasing the legal rights and economic status of women and improving healthcare to control population growth. The U.S. officials contended that phrases in the accord, such as "reproductive health services" and "reproductive rights," could be construed as promoting abortion. This stance is consistent with Klink's other work. When he was part of the Holy See's delegation to population conferences in the 1990s, the Vatican condemned the use of condoms for family-planning purposes or as protection against AIDS and HIV.
At home, restricting abortion was a major issue for social conservatives in the midterm elections. Christian Coalition in America, founded by Pat Robertson, began a voter registration drive the year before, in November 2001. Scorecards graded candidates' voting records. If they supported, among more mainstream Republican policies, abortion limitations and funding cuts for United Nations population-control programs, politicians received high marks from the coalition. "We believe pro-family influence is alive and well in the U.S.," says Ronn Torossian, spokesman for the coalition. "We expect both houses to continue that."
This month, religious right-wingers in Congress will begin to press their domestic antiabortion legislative agenda. First order of business: a ban on late-term abortion. This procedure, medically referred to as a dilation and extraction, or D and X, can be used after the 20th week of pregnancy when the mother's life is in jeopardy. But more often, studies have shown, it is done simply to end the pregnancy when both the mother and the fetus are in good health. The procedure gets a lot of press, but there is disagreement on how often it is performed. In 1996, the Alan Guttmacher Institute, a nonprofit focusing on sexual and reproductive health issues, surveyed the 2,000 hospitals, clinics and private practices that performed abortions and found that only 14 performed late-term abortions and that they accounted for 650 such procedures that year. Other studies, however, suggest late-term abortions are much more common.
Assuming Bush signs the late-term abortion ban into law, the religious conservatives will push other bills to erode Roe vs. Wade -- all of which have already passed the House. The Unborn Victims Act recognizes unborn children as human victims when they are injured or killed during the commission of federal crimes. The Child Custody Protection Act makes it a federal crime for any person, other than a parent, to knowingly transport a minor across state lines for the purpose of obtaining an abortion if the minor hasn't complied with state parental-involvement laws.
Then, there's the Abortion Non-Discrimination Act, which would allow healthcare entities, such as Catholic-affiliated hospitals, to refuse to comply with existing laws and regulations pertaining to abortion services. For example, they might not provide emergency contraception, high dosages of birth control pills given to reduce the chance of pregnancy that are most effective when taken within 72 hours after unprotected sex. Catholics for Free Choice found that only 5 percent of the emergency rooms in Catholic-run hospitals provided such "morning-after pills" on request; only 23 percent provided it for rape victims. "The agenda of the right is absurd," says Frances Kissling, president of the Catholic group. "If you think abortion is the worst thing you can imagine, then you should support contraception even more."
Concerned Women for America is lobbying for these bills. Based in Washington, the group helps its more than 500,000 members "bring Biblical principles into all levels of public policy." Wendy Wright, senior policy director for the organization, says she thinks there are enough antiabortion votes in Congress to pass all the initiatives that would further restrict women's access to legal abortion. She also says a recent poll done by New York-based Zogby International for the Buffalo News shows that younger people's support for abortion is decreasing. "Partial-birth abortions show how extreme abortionists have become," Wright says. "Here's a baby about to be born and it's treated in a gruesome manner. This generation of kids have grown up with abortion; they've seen the effects on the adult in their lives and on their peers."
However, Alan D. Crockett, a Zogby spokesman, says that a poll done in mid-November shows that while more Americans oppose access to legal abortions today than 10 years ago, more are also in favor. "It's still a highly volatile issue," he says. "But basically, Americans are split right down the middle."
What American women don't realize is that the administration has taken significant steps toward taking away their reproductive freedom, says Kate Michelman, president of National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League (NARAL), a pro-choice group. "The pro-choice movement is rather complacent in the belief that the right to choose is safe. We face the most hostile political environment we've ever faced since Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973. With the Senate returned to anti-choice leadership hands, there is no barrier to passing legislation that restructures freedom of choice in every conceivable way."
Not all these bills may become law, and some may be overthrown at a later date, but Bush is making sure that the federal judiciary will carry on his social conservative agenda for years to come. He is expected to have the chance to place one or two justices on the Supreme Court -- Justice John Paul Stevens is 82 and Chief Justice William Rehnquist turned 78 in October -- and he's unlikely to commit the sins of his father. Robert Boston, a spokesman for the Americans United for the Separation of Church and State, says Bush the younger won't nominate a justice like David Souter, whose views on abortion weren't clear before he landed on the high court. Instead, Boston says, Bush will name someone in the vein of Antonin Scalia or Clarence Thomas. "He'll vet the social conservatives and make sure they're comfortable," Boston says. "Essentially, Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell are going to have veto power."
If history is a guide, the U.S. Supreme Court may be reluctant to issue a ruling on social policy that could provoke a furious, divisive reaction. And that may be emblematic of the broader risk faced by adherents of the religious right. In a nation already deeply divided over emotional issues that revolve around the separation of church and state, the public may turn angry if it appears they are abusing their political mandate. This happened in 1994 with Newt Gingrich's Contract With America. Indeed, in Louisiana's run-off for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu's victory against Suzanne Haik Terrell, one of Bush's hand-picked candidates and a strong abortion opponent, may indicate there is a limit to how far the religious right can push its agenda. "There may be a backlash among more moderate voters," says Green at the University of Akron's Bliss Institute. "Clearly, the religious conservatives have an opportunity, but the margins in the House and Senate are very small, and moderate Republicans may desert and vote with the Democrats.
"I can see why they are so excited, but they may wind up being disappointed," he adds. "Reagan talked a real good game, but he was a good politician and whatever you may think, he understood that these are very divisive issues. George W. Bush is also a very good politician. But Bush has a heck of a problem: The religious conservatives are a strong constituency and they supported Republicans and they supported him in 2000. He wants them in 2004, but he can't give them everything they want."
Even Falwell claims to understand moderation. He knows religious conservatives can't be too greedy and press for too much, too fast. Falwell has the luxury of patience. He expects his flock to help reelect his ally, George W., in 2004 and then brother Jeb, now the Florida governor, in 2008. "It's an encouraging time," Falwell says, "and we must not fumble the ball."