Saturday, Sep 6, 2008
Democrat Bill McBride is keeping the race for governor close, but the Bush brothers are going all-out to keep the Sunshine State in the family.
Nov 1, 2002 | His famous brother in the White House has been doing everything he can to help, showering Florida with all sorts of federal goodies over the past 18 months. And he has unrivaled riches in his war chest, enough to power a small national campaign. But the polls don't lie: For all his advantages, Jeb Bush finds himself in a Florida dogfight.
On paper, Jeb Bush should be the clear favorite to become the first Republican in the state ever reelected governor, adding another victory for the Bush dynasty. But Bush has been dogged by embarrassing family problems, by deep lingering resentment over the 2000 election fiasco -- and by Bill McBride, a cash-poor Democratic challenger who refuses to go away. A political novice, McBride will receive some high-profile help Saturday when former President Bill Clinton arrives to campaign, the same day President Bush barnstorms in Florida for his brother.
Jeb Bush is having to work hard and spend lavishly in the last few days of the campaign. He holds a modest lead in many polls, but McBride, the folksy Vietnam War hero, has kept the race close and, backed by the national Democratic Party, has rolled out a batch of tough new ads pounding the governor at the close of the campaign.
Even many Republicans say it didn't have to be so close. Bush, the policy wonk of the family who earned a bachelor's degree in Latin American studies in just three years while making Phi Beta Kappa, has created an extraordinary power base in Florida, transforming the governor's office into one that wields unprecedented power in the Sunshine State. "Combining the power of the White House and the Governor's Mansion, the Bush family reelection machine is unmatched by anything that has ever happened before in Florida politics," the Palm Beach Post recently noted.
Despite that kind of firepower, Democrats want to believe they have a shot in Florida, where voters are divided into camps of those who love Jeb Bush and those who loathe him. "In some states you can't talk about religion or abortion. In this state you can't talk about politics because everybody's made up their minds," says Steve MacNamara, a professor of political science at Florida State University. "You're either for Jeb or you're not."
Many are not. They're still upset about the 2000 Florida recount, when Jeb Bush's office made nearly 100 phone calls to George Bush's campaign and its advisors after Jeb had officially recused himself from any involvement. They also want to send an embarrassing message to the White House, which has dispatched President Bush to make nearly 70 campaign appearances down the stretch (including one in Florida) as it tries to turn the fall elections into a national referendum on the president's performance.
"There won't be anything as devastating to President Bush as his brother's losing in Florida," Democratic Party chairman Terry McAuliffe recently boasted, insisting McBride would have the necessary resources at his disposal. The Republican national party has not backed down from the challenge, pumping $2.5 million into Bush's coffers last July and August alone. Having a Republican governor, not to mention a Bush brother, at Florida's helm will be crucial during the president's reelection run in 2004. It certainly helped in 2000.
Jeb Bush entered his reelection race somewhat tarnished and took some early hits, which quickly invited in-house second-guessers. "I could have given the governor a pretty good blueprint to follow where this would be a double-digit race so far," Florida Republican Party chairman Al Cardenas told the Gannett News Service two weeks ago. "But that's not how he wants to do it."
Going back to 2000, the fact that Florida even had to recount its ballots underscored how Bush failed to deliver a state widely assumed to be safely in the Republican column. Meanwhile, the governor has fought bruising statewide battles over affirmative action, the environment and education, while having to answer a string of accusations about ethical lapses and cronyism.
"His own workers are frothing at the mouth at the chance to vote against him," says Doug Martin, communications director for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees council, which represents 70,000 of Florida's public employees. The organization has spent $1 million in an effort to defeat Bush, the biggest commitment in the union's history. "Jeb is not someone who harbors dissent. Instead he cooks things up in secret and then rams it through the Legislature. He thinks he's king."
Bush has not been improving that image lately. In October, while jawing with Republican legislators, he bragged that he had a "devious plan" to circumvent a popular education amendment on this year's ballot that mandated smaller classes. Bush opposes the amendment. His foot-in-the-mouth blunder -- Bush was unaware a credential-wearing reporter was recording the back-and-forth with GOP pals -- made headlines, and it is now featured prominently in a McBride commercial.
The episode reminded some people of Bush's gaffe in 1999 when, in the midst of a statewide debate over affirmative action, two black lawmakers refused to leave the lieutenant governor's office. Bush dismissively ordered an aide to "kick their asses out." That too was caught on tape.
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