Of the three permanent members of the Security Council in play, China appears to pose the least threat to the U.S. policy. Although it has voiced reservations about the proposed U.S. resolution, experts doubt China would torpedo any proposal. "Under their broader strategic thinking, China's best interest is to have good relations with America and to keep quiet about the U.N. resolution," says Cheng Li, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center and professor of political science at Hamilton College in upstate New York. For political consideration though, he thinks China would abstain, rather than vote in favor of a U.S.-sponsored resolution. "Being pro-United States looks silly at home," Li explains.

Ideally, foreign policy analysts say, the U.S. would like to peel Russia away from the dissenters in hopes that France would not want to cast the lone veto. Conversely, if France gives in to the U.S., either by voting yes or agreeing to abstain, it's unlikely that Russia, with too much to lose from fractured relations with the U.S., would stand in America's way at the U.N.

"It's clear Moscow is not prepared to let this issue stand in the way of the rest of U.S.-Russia relations," says Saunders.

As for the possibility of France casting a lone veto, "it's touch and go," says Lopez at the Krock Institute for Peace, which has been in regular contact with French diplomats. "At this point I'd say yes [to a French veto], but next week it might be no."

That's why, at least temporarily, France has emerged as the most important diplomatic player in the pending war with Iraq. In late August, French diplomats signaled that they were willing to work with the U.S., perhaps even to provide troops as they did during the Gulf War. But things cooled in September when the U.S. rejected Saddam's initial offer to allow inspectors back in the country. Then came France's suggestion of a two-step resolution, followed more recently by dismissive comments from the French prime minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, eschewing a "simplistic vision of the war of good against evil." The jab seemed clearly directed at the White House.

In recent weeks, France has become a sharp thorn in the side of the administration. "It's a position the French like to be in," notes Craig Parsons, director of the European Center at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Public Affairs. "They have been making sure they take distinctive positions from the United States all through the postwar period."

Yet there are reasons why France's stance at the U.N. is not being dismissed out of hand as Gallic pride or quixotic obstructionism. For instance, despite often clashing with the U.S., French leaders recently backed U.S. military action in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Kosovo, which shows they are not allergic to all U.S. use of force. Also, led by newly elected President Jacques Chirac, France today is governed by moderate-to-conservative politicians, not left-wingers with a knee-jerk opposition to America's foreign policies.

"What could induce France to back America's campaign? I don't see it," says Leguey-Feilleux. "The concern for France is that the consequences of this war would be drastic. Then she could say: 'Look, listen to us next time.'"

Adding backbone to France's resolve is the fact that its position is immensely popular among French voters. Also, minus Britain, most of the European community stands behind France at the U.N., an uncommon occurrence. Especially comforting is the fact that Germany, in a rare move, has out-flanked France in its opposition to America's policy, thanks to the strident antiwar rhetoric from Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder during his successful reelection campaign.

Meanwhile, experts say, France would not pay that big of a political penalty for challenging the White House at the U.N., in part because it's not as dependent on the U.S. as Russia is. "There's not that much of a downside, given that current French leadership is already lukewarm to the United States' transatlantic agenda," says Parsons.

But can France openly oppose a war and still protect its significant economic interest in a post-Saddam Iraq? France is Iraq's biggest trade and investment partner in the West, with French commercial interests in Iraq now worth $4 billion. And Iraq reportedly owes France $4.5 billion.

They can be protected, Parsons says, thanks to France's historical ties with Iraq. Also, France could gain economic entry when America inevitably calls on its European allies to help rebuild the nation after the war. "I think French will have a reentry strategy no matter what happens," he says.

No doubt as negotiations intensify this week at the U.N., that reentry strategy will be a topic of much private debate.

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