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Friday, Jan 9, 2009
By pushing the limits of what the president will accept, Sharon is buying time to complete his military strategy. But is he digging his own political grave?
Apr 10, 2002 | This week, Ariel Sharon ignored the first rule of survival for Israeli prime ministers: Avoid confrontation with Washington at any cost. After 13 months in office, Sharon ignited the self-destruction mechanism that threatens every right-wing leader in Israel, by defying President George W. Bush's repeated calls to start pulling Israeli forces out of the Palestinian towns of the West Bank. And as if to emphasize his folly, Sharon used the same words as his predecessor Yitzhak Shamir, who fell from office a decade ago after a serious clash with the elder President Bush: "There is no confrontation, merely a disagreement between friends."
Sharon had obviously miscalculated the seriousness of the president's demand to "Stop the incursions and start the withdrawal," made during his Middle East speech last Thursday. He can hardly be blamed. For weeks, the administration had sent contradictory messages on the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, tilting between its hawks and doves. The perception in Jerusalem was that Secretary of State Colin Powell was trying to pull Bush away from Sharon, but that the White House backed the Israeli invasion of Palestinian areas, which started on March 29, after the "Seder massacre," a suicide bombing that killed 27 Israelis. The president's remarks were interpreted as a "yellow light" from Washington to keep the operation going until Powell's arrival in Jerusalem this Thursday or Friday.
But this assessment proved overly optimistic. Unbeknownst to Sharon, Powell and Bush closed ranks during their consultations last week and carried a coordinated message. From Sharon's point of view, it was a classic example of America changing the rules of the game without telling him. Bush emphasized that he meant withdrawal "without delay," and bashed Sharon in public and in a rare phone call. By Monday, Israel had ordered its forces out of two Palestinian towns, Qalqilia and Tulkarm. This move was meant to buy more time elsewhere in the territories, while heavy fighting went on in Jenin, and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) surrounded Yasser Arafat's compound in Ramallah and dozens of Palestinian warriors took refuge at the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem.
On Tuesday, Sharon had widened his rift with Washington. As Secretary Powell announced his intention to meet Arafat, the prime minister responded by calling the proposed meeting "a tragic mistake." Sharon told a group of visiting Jewish leaders from the United States that "such meetings have never brought a reduction of terror. They merely encouraged Arafat to wage more terror." At the same time, however, Israeli defense sources indicated that Israel would carry out further withdrawals from Palestinian towns, and might ease the blockade on Arafat himself, prior to the Powell visit. Sharon is playing a delicate game with the administration, trying to push his limits with Bush. The big question remains whether Sharon will pull all or most of the army out before Powell comes. He seems likely to pull out some troops, but leaving Ramallah, Jenin and Bethlehem as they are would mean a Palestinian victory. It would be unwise to predict anything with certainty.
The clash with the president topped Sharon's troubles with the United States. It was not the only disagreement, however. Israel's "isolation" of Arafat in Ramallah has rendered the mission of retired Gen. Anthony Zinni, the American special envoy, all but useless. Zinni negotiated a cease-fire proposal, which the Israelis accepted two weeks ago. The Palestinians balked. Last Friday, Zinni met the besieged Arafat, after pressuring Sharon to allow him into the sealed compound. The Palestinian leader asked to consult his advisors on the text. Zinni relayed the request to Sharon, who said no. On Monday, Zinni and U.S. ambassador Daniel Kurtzer called on Sharon, raising the issue once again. "There is no point in my mission," complained the envoy, "if the Palestinians cannot discuss my proposals." Palestinian officials refused to see Zinni, unless they were first allowed to confer with Arafat to get instructions.
Sharon agreed to let Arafat's underlings in, but rejected Zinni's demand to pull the IDF further away from the compound, to facilitate Powell's planned meeting with the Palestinian leader. "The secretary could not enter the meeting under Israeli tank barrels," Zinni told the prime minister. Sharon, however, wants the Palestinians to turn over the suspected assassins of Israeli minister Rehavam Ze'evi, killed last October. Israel claims that they're hiding with Arafat, along with Fuad Shubaki, the paymaster implicated in importing the shipment of arms from Iran on the Karine A that was intercepted by the Israeli navy in January.
Despite his reluctance, Sharon ordered the army to fix the water and electricity systems at Arafat's compound and supply him with better food. Israeli defense officials say that eventually, the military forces would be moved to smooth Powell's way into the besieged headquarters.
Sharon feels he can risk a public rift with Bush because he has a trump card: Arafat. The prime minister uses his bitterest enemy as his shield, knowing that Washington loathes the Palestinian leader. Bush used harsh language about Arafat, saying he "betrayed the hopes of the people he's supposed to lead." The Palestinians, said Bush, "deserve a government that focuses on their needs, rather than feeding their resentments." National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice appealed to "other Palestinians" to renounce violence if Arafat would not. Back at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem, these remarks were interpreted as a veiled acceptance of the idea of replacing Arafat. (Palestinian leaders took them the same way: Palestinian official Saeb Erekat said they amounted to a "license to kill" Arafat.) Sharon has tried to persuade Bush time and again on the need to do away with Arafat, to no avail. Last week's speech, as seen from Jerusalem, indicated a new White House openness toward the idea of ousting Arafat, although the official American position still holds that Arafat is the legitimate Palestinian leader.
According to Israeli sources close to the administration, there was an internal American debate on Arafat. State Department officials argued that Arafat's strength lies in his ability to stir the Arab "street," thereby threatening the moderate, pro-American regimes with domestic instability. They recommended recruiting Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Morocco to attempt to force the Palestinian leader to engage in "rational" behavior.
Bush agreed to give Arafat "one last chance" to behave himself, accept Zinni's proposal and move toward a serious cease-fire. The "or else" part of the equation could mean an American resolution to displace him, and encourage a new leadership for the Palestinians. The means for such removal are still unclear. Zinni, according to the same sources, passed the threat to Arafat in their meeting last Friday. Wrapped in diplomatic understatement, the American envoy made clear that if Arafat sticks to his intransigence, the Powell meeting would be the last one Arafat would have with a senior American official. The assessment at the Bush White House is not optimistic, however, given their bad experiences with Arafat so far.
According to one version, Bush is convinced that as long as both Arafat and Sharon are at the helm, there is no real chance for a peaceful settlement and regional calm. Replacing Arafat with a more moderate leadership -- assuming such leadership could be found -- might in turn move the Israeli public to replace Sharon, and pave the way back to peace.
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