Mission impossible?

A flare-up of Middle East violence, including the assassination of a master Hamas terrorist, may render the peacemaking efforts of new U.S. envoy Anthony Zinni futile.

By Flore de Préneuf

Nov 27, 2001 | Even before the United States' special envoys arrived here Monday to push Israelis and Palestinians toward a cease-fire, the warring sides were predicting the mission's failure. The mood was never very optimistic, but what faint hopes there were after U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell announced last Monday a new American willingness to help sort out Israeli-Palestinian differences swiftly evaporated by the end of the week, when the country was drenched again in blood and fear.

As America's emissaries prepared to set foot here, Israel went on high alert, expecting a major terror attack in retaliation for the high-profile assassination of Mahmoud Abu Hanoud, the leader of the military wing of the extremist Islamic organization Hamas in the West Bank, killed Friday by Israeli missiles. The Palestinian street, meanwhile, seethed with anger and calls for revenge.

"It's frustrating and depressing," said Ziad Abu Amr, a moderate member of the Palestinian Legislative Council and a political scientist based in Gaza. "Every time there's an opening you start hoping, but immediately something happens and wastes the opportunity."

In the past five days alone, five Palestinian cousins, ages 6 to 14, were accidentally killed on their way to school by concealed Israeli explosives that were meant to blow up Palestinian fighters. An arch-terrorist and his two associates were obliterated by a rain of missiles fired at their car from an Israeli helicopter. A Palestinian teenager was shot and killed during a gunfight that erupted at the funeral for the five dead boys. A Palestinian woman was shot and killed near an Israeli checkpoint when her taxi failed to stop. Israeli helicopters hit targets from dusk to dawn Saturday night in Gaza. And a Palestinian suicide-bomber detonated his belt of explosives, killing himself at the border crossing between Gaza and Israel and injuring two Israeli soldiers.

An Israeli soldier was killed by a mortar shell fired by Palestinians at an army outpost in Gaza. Palestinian shooting and mortar attacks resumed with a vengeance in many flashpoints that had been smoldering or quiet for the past several weeks. And the Israeli army's chief of staff narrowly escaped death Sunday evening when two roadside bombs, planted by Palestinians, exploded near his convoy.

This macabre list of hits will come in handy this week, when Israelis and Palestinians begin campaigning for American sympathy by trading blame for the escalating violence. On his first two-week trip to the region, Powell's newly appointed point man, retired Marine Corps Gen. Anthony Zinni, accompanied by Assistant Secretary of State for the Near East William Burns and Aaron Miller, a member of past American peace teams, will be subjected by both parties to intense "study sessions." On Tuesday, the emissaries' first working day, an Israeli team will take Zinni on a special "eye-opening" field trip and present him with evidence linking Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and his men to terror attacks against Israelis, according to Maariv, an Israeli daily newspaper. On Wednesday, the emissaries will meet with a Palestinian team and be presented with a long list of parallel grievances.

Although the Middle East address Powell delivered in Louisville, Ky., last week was saluted for its balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, in face-to-face diplomacy the United States seems to have granted Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon primacy over his old rival Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Sharon is due to meet President Bush at the White House early next week -- a privilege that was denied Arafat earlier this month, when Bush did not even shake his hand at a diplomatic lunch in New York.

Any hopes that America's new involvement might help break the bloody impasse between the two sides were dealt a severe blow by the assassination of the master terrorist Abu Hanoud, on the eve of Zinni's trip to the region. While the Israelis defended Friday's killing as an opportunity strike against a deadly foe, it was seen by many Palestinians and European diplomats as an Israeli provocation blatantly designed to torpedo new chances of reaching a cease-fire. The United States, busy hunting down its own enemies in Afghanistan, was silent on the subject. But the killing of Abu Hanoud, revered as a hero by the Palestinian street, has brought the conflict to a boil after two weeks of relative quiet.

"They don't want quiet," said Ghassan Khatib, a Palestinian analyst. "Whenever Arafat succeeds in reducing Palestinian violence, Israel provokes the Palestinians into a violent reaction. If there were a successful cease-fire, then the two sides would have to address political issues, like the end of settlements and resuming negotiations, that Israel cannot afford to deal with."

For Abu Amr, the political scientist from Gaza, the timing of the assassination followed its own logic; it was not a plot to undermine the success of the American delegation's visit. But intentional or not, the result may be just as disastrous, he said. "The assassinations started and will continue regardless of American visits. This is an independent policy. But it will have an impact. By continuing this policy, Israel expects a Palestinian reaction that will provide it with an excuse for resorting to military solutions to political problems. It helps Israel evade and avoid coming forward to address the political issues included in Powell's speech. The expected Palestinian reaction will play into Israel's hands by freeing Israel from its obligations: It will say, see, we can't talk while there is violence."

Israel defended the assassination as a crucial act of self-defense in light of evidence that showed Abu Hanoud was planning new terrorist attacks. The timing was coincidental: "The target presented itself," said Yossi Alpher, an Israeli strategic analyst. "The General Security Services [Israel's security force, also known as Shin Bet] had been trying to get him for years."

Next Page: Is the U.S. move serious -- or just more talk?

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