Friday, Sep 5, 2008
As Islamic militants protest the American attacks, Indonesia's new president must decide how hard to crack down on the latest threat to her complex, fragile, far-flung nation.
Oct 13, 2001 | On Sunday, as the United States began raining bombs and missiles on Afghanistan, the Indonesian military put on a show of its own: A column of 40 armored personnel carriers massed around the U.S. embassy, then fanned out strategically toward the city's nearby soccer stadium.
Early in the week of bombing, Muslim militants had staged loud, sometimes violent protests in front of the razor wire-fortified American diplomatic compound, while government snipers looked on from nearby.
But Friday, after radical Islamic groups called for massive street protests, fewer than 1,000 demonstrators showed at the U.S. Embassy. Small protests were also held in several other cities.
The anti-American protests and threats that have wracked the world's largest Muslim nation in recent weeks pose a significant challenge to the young, untested presidency of Megawati Sukarnoputri -- a presidency already buffeted by a debt-strangled economy and violent sectarian strife. After securing $540 million in aid and loan guarantees, Megawati, the first foreign head of state to meet with President Bush since last month's terror attacks, offered her support to Washington's fight against terrorism. As the U.S. seeks to bring together Muslim support for its campaign, Indonesia -- 90 percent of whose 213 million people consider themselves followers of Islam -- is an essential ally.
But this relationship, barely 10 weeks into Megawati's presidency, puts her in a very delicate, perhaps dangerous, position. Megawati, like the heads of several other Islamic states, finds herself caught between the need to preserve good relations with the U.S. -- which is also Indonesia's largest trading partner -- and the equally urgent need to avoid enraging her people, many of whom are angry that the United States attacked a Muslim nation.
It is impossible to predict how a sustained American attack on Afghanistan will affect Indonesia. But one local analyst, Mochtar Buchori, a professor of political development at Mohammadiyah-Hamka University in Jakarta, says that in the coming weeks, Megawati must assert control over the situation or be ousted. "If she doesn't do anything," he said, "within a month she will be toppled. What we will or will not do for this problem will determine the future of our nation."
Mochtar believes that Megawati has no choice but to use a firm hand against the militants. Social disruptions strong enough to drive out Americans and disrupt Indonesia's commercial ties with the U.S. would be catastrophic for the archipelago's economy. "If no tourists come to Indonesia and there is capital flight, what will happen?" he asked. "The economy will collapse. The protesters will push further -- and what is needed is the voice of rational Islam."
In an ominous sign, tourist officials on the world-famous island of Bali have reported that 6,000 people have canceled visits there. (This despite the fact that the Balinese are not Muslims. They practice an animist-tinged form of Hinduism.)
Mochtar says the military hasn't moved against the militants because of internal divisions within it. One faction is reluctant to clamp down; another wants to use force.
Megawati has so far opted for restraint. But last Friday, during the 56th anniversary commemoration of the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI), she warned of "ideological fanaticism" harbored by religious groups "at the expense of the law."
"Our unity as a nation is threatened with disintegration by violence and this ideological fanaticism -- our energy has been exhausted on handling these problems, instead of tackling other, pressing issues," she said.
"Disintegration by violence" referred to the separatist insurrections, currently being opposed by the TNI, on the islands of Aceh and Iriyan Jaya. That fighting has no direct connection with the religious rage directed at America. But the "ideological fanaticism" of the radical Islamic groups poses an equally dangerous challenge.
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