"The Bulldozer" clanks on

The "Russian vote" represents about 17 percent of the electorate and has been key in swinging other Israeli elections. Russian-speaking immigrants helped elect Barak in May 1999 and appear ready to crown his rival Sharon this time round. Recent polls give Sharon about 53 percent of the vote in this sector, while Barak is down to 22 percent.

Consultants for Barak still hope to retain a large chunk of the Russian vote. They point to the fact that immigrants from the early 1990s remember Sharon as the housing minister who built cheap, low-quality accommodations for them, far from their workplaces or in controversial West Bank settlements.

But listening to Yulya Poznanski, a 45-year-old woman who left Moscow 10 years ago, such pedestrian history isn't likely to matter much today. "It's not a question of liking or not his housing policy. The country is on the verge of annihilation!" said Poznanski, visibly exasperated. "We need someone to save the country! Someone who will say publicly that Oslo is a suicidal process. We have to stop giving territory to the Palestinians because the more we give, the more appetite they have."

A tour guide in Karmiel, Poznanski has been out of work since the intifada broke out and sunk the fortunes of Israel's tourism industry. "They use violence -- we protect ourselves. We must show decisiveness. Look at the map! Israel is surrounded by a sea of wild, mean and hungry Arabs. Islam is worse than fascism and Communism. Muslims want to conquer the world. You [in the West] will be next," she predicted.

The wave of fear and anger that could easily propel Sharon to power is not confined to Israeli Jews. Polls show Sharon scoring points even among Arab citizens of Israel, a taxpaying, passport-holding minority that represents about 15 percent of the voting population.

Although 95 percent of Israeli Arabs voted for Barak in the last elections, the desire to punish him, a man they hold personally responsible for the shooting deaths of 13 Israeli Arabs in last fall's riots, overrides the deep distaste many have for Sharon. Recent polls give Sharon 8 percent of the Israeli-Arab vote -- not bad for a man Arabs view as a war criminal since the Sabra and Shatila massacres. About half the Arab electorate intends to register its discontent by boycotting the election or casting a blank ballot. And support for Barak has dropped to less than 40 percent. Even before the intifada fanned Arab anger against the Jewish state Arabs felt insulted and bitterly disappointed by the way Barak turned his back on them the moment he was elected.

In this, Israeli Arabs are no different from mainstream secular Israelis who hoped that Barak would push a package of secular reforms instead of caving in to the ultra-Orthodox Jewish minority's demands. Dovish Israelis also find fault in Barak's use of excessive force in dealing with the Palestinian uprising and may choose to snub him by playing hooky on election day. Things are looking decidedly grim for Barak, a prime minister invested with a huge capital of sympathy 18 months ago but whose zigzags in policy alienated many of his supporters in record time.

In the end, Sharon's main advantage is that he is not Barak. "I don't know if he's Mr. Security, but Barak certainly isn't," said Michel Pinto, 32, a cook at a small hummus-and-pita shop on the outskirts of Zarit. "[Sharon] doesn't need to do much. The moment he comes to power, Palestinians will understand. Sharon will act differently -- not like Barak who issues ultimatum after ultimatum and does nothing. The Palestinians have to be calmed once and then it will be better." Barak is routinely accused of being "too soft" and inconsistent in his relations with the Palestinians.

Right-wingers point to the fact that the current-but-halted peace talks in Taba are a result of Sharon's blessedly tough reputation. The hawkish International Christian Zionist Center in Jerusalem congratulated Sharon this week in the following terms: "You have not yet even been chosen as the next Prime Minister of Israel and already your shadow is causing the Palestinians to sit up and finally become serious!" The Taba negotiations are widely seen as a last-ditch effort to save Barak's neck by giving him the outlines of a peace plan he could then sell to the Israeli public on Feb. 6. (The flip side of this diplomatic drive is that any agreement Barak's peace team manages to secure in the next few days will be seen as a base election ploy irrespective of its actual merits.)

Even Barak's greatest achievement, a bloodless withdrawal from southern Lebanon, is under attack these days. In Zarit, Sharon told reporters and residents that he supported an exit from Lebanon but not without first hammering a deal with Lebanon and Hezbollah, the Lebanese guerrilla forces who resisted the Israeli occupation. The "shameful way" in which the withdrawal was carried out by Barak projected weakness, he said, and has had negative repercussions on Israel's regional standing.

In the end, it appears, Barak saved Ouzana's son only to put him at risk again. Less than a year after leaving Lebanon, Avi Ouzana, 22, is now serving in Jerusalem and the West Bank, where stones, bombs and volleys of live ammunition have become part of the scenery. "He risks going to war," said his mother. The question is whether old-warrior Sharon, if elected prime minister, could realistically decrease those odds.

• View blog reactions