Friday, Jul 4, 2008
By calling for early elections, the embattled Israeli prime minister buys a little time, but also places his fate in the hands of Yasser Arafat.
Nov 30, 2000 | Ehud Barak's minority government collapsed Tuesday night.
Just as the violence between Israel and its Palestinian neighbors seemed to enter a period of respite, Barak, under pressure from a majority of hostile parliamentarians, launched a preemptive strike on his domestic enemies and called for early elections. The Knesset, Israel's parliament, then passed five separate bills with a clear majority in favor of the move.
For weeks, Barak had pushed for a national unity government that would save his puny coalition and steer the country out of its current security crisis. Even on Tuesday, the prime minister speaking on Israeli radio called early elections in times of strife "irresponsible."
But when it appeared that negotiations with right-wing leader Ariel Sharon were leading nowhere, Barak seized the initiative and delivered a combative speech at the Knesset, stunning the house and the nation.
"I am not afraid of elections," he said. "In all those I have run in until now, I have won. I am proud of the steps taken by my government. If you want elections, I am ready for elections."
Barak's slow-motion fall started on the eve of the Camp David summit this summer, when the would-be peacemaker set off with ambitious plans to end Israel's 52-year conflict with the Palestinians. Elected in a historic landslide in May 1999, Barak suddenly found himself with the support of only a minority of lawmakers.
That Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat rejected Barak's peace plan at the summit only made things worse. The eruption of a low-intensity but diplomatically devastating war at the end of September was the final blow. For the past two months the Israeli public and politicians alike have berated Barak for tottering and hesitating between war and peace in times of national crisis. More than 30 Israeli Jews have died in the clashes so far.
Right-wingers have accused Barak of showing too much restraint in putting down the Palestinian uprising. Peaceniks have criticized him for doing too little to satisfy Palestinian aspirations.
Ironically, Barak's fate next spring, when new elections are likely to take place, will depend once again on Israel's relationship with the Palestinians -- a difficult and highly unpredictable relationship as the past months' violence has proven. The conventional wisdom here is that Barak's only hope is to reach an agreement with Arafat in the coming months in order to turn the elections into a referendum on peace and security.
By calling for early elections, Barak, who will be protected from no-confidence measures, has just bought himself time to achieve that agreement. Although the exact date of the next elections has yet to be finalized, Barak's time in office is likely to drag on until May. But according to most analysts, reaching peace is a long shot and Barak is something of a kamikaze for even suggesting he'll try.
"Barak's fate is now in the hands of the man whom he supposedly despises more than anyone else: Yasser Arafat," wrote Nahum Barnea, veteran commentator for Israel's leading newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth. "If he wants, Arafat can give Barak a half year of quiet and an agreement he will be able to sell to his voters. And if he should want otherwise, Arafat can give Barak a half year of warfare and wipe him and his party off the political map of Israel."
Some Israelis fear that Arafat, the man who told Barak he could "go to hell" just a month ago, will strive to exact as many concessions as he can from his political hostage.
Get Salon in your mailbox!