In Belgrade, now what?

What about the expectations placed on Kostunica both by the international community and at home?

Well, I do not think that he'll be able to all of a sudden give all of the Serbs all of their salaries that they have not been paid for I don't know how many years. But I think this is a patient people that understands things will not turn around immediately. I don't think they're looking to him and saying, "Well, you're promising a BMW in every garage" or something like that. They know that things are bad.

It's going to take a bit of good diplomacy to deal with the West and to make sure that the funds and the help that the West is promising is channeled in the right direction, because that probably won't continue very long. We have a reputation for promising things, and then after a few months, all of a sudden, it comes out that the money we promised for aid never materialized. I don't think that anything will develop vis-à-vis Kosovo right away. This will be left quietly so that the new government does not get hit with all those problems. I don't think anyone's expecting that all of a sudden there will be a solution to Kosovo because it's really so complex.

Again, something to watch is that along with the elections for the presidency there were elections for Parliament. And many of the members of Milosevic's party were voted in, so he will have to find a way of dealing with these people. And a lot of those internal mechanisms are going to demand a lot of his attention.

So what about Milosevic's future?

He claims to be the head of the party. But one would hope that the same kinds of defections that happened among the police and to a certain extent within the army would occur within the party. I think that the party will not continue to support Milosevic. The members of that party do not feel any great loyalty to the guy. I think they'll go with whomever will promise them that they're not going to lose their property or be sent to the Hague. There's going to be some shaking up. I don't think that party has the power that it used to have.

Milosevic might be afraid more of his own party than he is the opposition at this point. I think it would be difficult for Milosevic to remain in Serbia the way [indicted war criminal Radovan] Karadic has remained in the Republican Srbska. Serbia is not the same. It's an interesting question. My sense is that there will be some kind of arrangement where he will have to perhaps face some kind of judicial process within Yugoslavia. I think that it would be appropriate. Whether Kostunica can arrange for that or not is really another question. At the same time, his party which supported him, sometimes they can turn out to be your worst enemies in the end. It might be more dangerous for them to have a Milosevic around who is healthy, and if something should happen to him, I wouldn't say it's just the opposition who may want to get rid of him. I think he's got to watch his back, not so much his front.

How do you think Kostunica will deal with Milosevic?

Well, he's already called for restraint from his followers, and I think that gives you a good indication of the man. He does not want to start his presidency with the blood of Milosevic, or anyone really, if it can be avoided. I know he said he would not turn Milosevic over to the tribunal. But I think he would feel it's appropriate to have some kind of judicial process brought against Milosevic. Not so much for international acts, but certainly, he's done enough to his own country that he should be held accountable there.

Would the international community accept a Serbian solution to dealing with Milosevic?

I don't think they would say, "OK, you take care of him" and just forget about the war crimes charges. But at the same time, I don't think they'd keep sanctions going if Milosevic is not turned over. I'd like to think the international community is smart enough to realize that it's better to think constructively and getting a strong, stable country within the Balkans is better than trying to figure out how to get revenge. I think there are a lot of people who would like to see Milosevic tried. A lot of people in Bosnia of sure, not to mention Kosovo, etc. But I think for those people, for the long term, it's more important to have a stable situation, some law, some decency.

I have no love for Milosevic, and I won't cry at his funeral. But at the same time, if I had a choice of seeing him in the tribunal being prosecuted or something that would be more valuable in terms of reconstructing the country, I would go for the latter. And I think that's the way it is going to go within the United Nations.

• View blog reactions