Monday, May 12, 2008
Early election returns in Yugoslavia show the opposition with a forceful lead, but will the indestructible Milosevic wriggle out of defeat?
Sep 25, 2000 | Giddy at early returns that showed opposition challenger Vojislav Kostunica trouncing Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic in Yugoslavia's presidential elections Sunday, opposition activists celebrated through the night in Belgrade, the Serbian capital. Meanwhile, the regime-controlled Federal Elections Commission continued to count ballots behind closed doors.
Many Serbs anticipate that the day of reckoning has only been postponed, as Milosevic and the hundreds of officials who have a stake in his continued power strategize what to do next.
Opposition activists, young people and independent reporters celebrated Kostunica's strong showing with street parties outside the headquarters of the united opposition in downtown Belgrade. But officials with Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) also declared victory, albeit a slight one, for Milosevic, who has held power in Yugoslavia since 1987. The stakes are high for Milosevic, who has been indicted for war crimes by a United Nations tribunal along with four other top Yugoslav officials.
Under Yugoslavia's Constitution, if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the total votes cast, a runoff election is to be held within 15 days. Regional analysts had widely predicted before Sunday's election that Milosevic would do everything in his power to declare a first-round victory. What he will do now remains an ominous question.
Independent poll monitors complained that the elections were plagued from start to finish by wide-scale voting irregularities, intimidation and ballot stuffing designed to benefit the regime.
But shockingly, such tactics may not have been enough. Early Monday the regime's confidence appeared to be unraveling as election returns showed the opposition's victory to be so decisive that it would be difficult, even with widespread cheating, for Milosevic to declare a first-round victory.
Belgrade analyst Bratislav Grubacic described evidence of deep confusion within the Milosevic camp, with the head of the army and the state-run Politika newspaper summoned to Milosevic's villa at 2 a.m. for an all-night huddle. In addition, independent Belgrade Radio Index reported that regime-controlled Radio TV Serbia had broadcast a televised statement showing Kostunica in the lead before hastily withdrawing it. Grubacic suggested that the opposition's victory was so decisive that Milosevic may be forced to go to a second round, and thereby postpone his defeat.
"It is already now definitely clear that the Democratic Opposition of Serbia has won the Yugoslav elections at all the levels," Grubacic wrote in Belgrade news wire VIP News Monday. "Milosevic and his loyalists do not have many options left. Milosevic will perhaps continue to go for a victory in the first round of the elections, but some people in the SPS believe that Milosevic should accept something that seemed impossible until Sunday -- to run in the second round of the presidential elections. It is still not certain whether the left-wing coalition will be able to carry out an electoral theft in order for Milosevic to win."
Opposition activists say they are thrilled with the early returns that show that their candidate may actually clinch a first-round victory.
"We're celebrating," said Vanja Cuk, a university student who was partying Sunday night at the Independent Media Center in Belgrade. "There's 10,000 opposition supporters on the street outside partying. But if Milosevic declares a second round, I am going to dye my hair black" as a sign of mourning, she said.
Many fear the prospect of clashes between opposition supporters and the government in the days to come, should the regime and the opposition disagree over the election's results.
As a portent of what could come, special anti-terrorist police forces dressed in helmets and riot gear formed a cordon in downtown Belgrade early Sunday evening. They separated a few hundred Milosevic supporters who had gathered for a victory concert from thousands of opposition supporters. The Milosevic regime's supporters dispersed after the concert without incident as opposition supporters stayed on the streets and at the opposition headquarters to watch the early-morning returns.
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